SotD : 29/12/2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th December 2014

Katkeau was already a beaten horse before being pulled up 3 from home on Saturday, as he weakened in the latter stages of what became a bit of a slog at a sodden Chepstow on Welsh National Day.

Back to England for Monday’s runner, who attempts to give his trainer a second successive in the…

2.10 Newbury:

A Grade 1, 4yo+ hurdle over 2m5f on soft ground, better known as the Challow Novices’ Hurdle won by Nicky Henderson’s Captain Cutter last year and he hopes to repeat the feat with the 5 yr old Vyta du Roc this year and there are some compelling stats as to why he might just succeed.

Here at Newbury…

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Mr Henderson’s Class 1 hurdlers have won 6 of 40 races (15% SR) for 17.5pts (+43.7% ROI) in the last 5 years.

Vyta du Roc steps up a grade here today…

And Hendo’s runners priced between 6/4 & 6/1 have won 37 out of 140 races when stepping up a grade since 2009. Those winners have generated level stakes profits of 29.8pts at an ROI of 21.3%, whilst those running in Class 1 contests are 9/25 (36% SR) for 16.7pts (+66.8% ROI) in the last five years.

The horses is unbeaten in all four starts here in the UK…

And horses aged 4 to 7 running in a Class 1 to 3 hurdle boasting a 100% record have maintained their winning run on 100 occasions from 318 attempts since 2009 with this 31.5% strike rate producing 91.7pts (+28.8% ROI) profit. Obviously there’ll be a lot of horses in that list with just one race/win under their belts, but further down the line, horses with a 4/4 record went on to record a fifth win nine times from 26 attempts (34.6% SR) for 10.6pts (+40.7% ROI) profit.

And back to Newbury…

Nicky Henderson’s unexposed, but not raw (ie 2 to 10 starts) runners over obstacles (ie no bumpers)have a good record when competing here at Newbury on the back of a top 3 finish last time out, winning 34 of 98 (34.7% SR) races yielding 66.5pts profit at an ROI of 67.9% and of those there is a 13/28 (46.4% SR) record from those running within 21 to 30 days of their last run.

These horses have produced level stakes profits of 88.7pts (+316.6% ROI), whilst those running in hurdles races here within 21 to 30 days of a win LTO are 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 14.6pts (+132.7% ROI).

Vyta du Roc is still improving/progressing with each run he has, obviously with a 4/4 record, all his stats say 100%, but of note is his 2/2 record on soft ground and he’s used to going left handed, he’s used to small fields and I’m confident he’ll handle the extra furlong.

I’m looking forward to what promises to be a decent race in which I expect Vyta du Roc to prevail at 9/4 BOG. I’m on with Paddy Power, whilst the same is available with Hills and Coral amongst others.

For a fuller market picture…

…click here for the latest betting on the 2.10 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

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Here is today’s racecard.

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