Double Dutch, 30th December 2014
A strange day yesterday with our first race initially being postponed with the possibility of staging it as the last race on the Leopardstown card as opposed to being the first.
So, we twiddled our thumbs until 3.15 and the race at Newbury became our opening and possibly only race of the day. Both our runners ran well and contested a pulsating finish with our 8/1 BOG advised and suggested E/W single Polamco beating the favourite by just a neck to land a £15.57 forecast.
All of which meant that we’d got a nice starting stake on the other race, should it take place or a 7pt profit on the day, should it not go ahead. Unfortunately for us, the worst case scenario prevailed, whereby they got the race on, but we didn’t have the winner!
Knocklong was the subject of some market support (7/1 to 5/1), but made a few jumping errors on his way round before being eventually pulled up just before the last, whilst On The Shannon looked well set to win the race, leading over hat last fence, but emptied out rather quickly on the run-in, eventually beaten by 5 lengths into third place at 15/8, denying us a massive 30.5/1 payout.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Polamco: won at 13/2 (adv 8/1)
Morito du Berlais: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
The forecast paid £15.57 here.
On The Shannon: 3rd at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Knocklong: PU at 5/1 (adv 7/1)
Results to date:
447 winning selections from 1554 = 28.76%
141 winning bets in 403 days = 34.99%
P/L : +91.92pts (+11.41% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
As it was yesterday, there’s not a great deal of action to aim at today, but we’ll take our chances with the following…
Anastazia is 113 since stepping into Nursery company on the A/W with her two wins at Class 5 being followed by a creditable 2-length defeat in a Class 2 contest at Wolverhampton last time out. She steps back down two grades here today and looks well poised to resume winning ways. There should be some decent early pace for her to take advantage of, as she tends to hold back and come late. Her jockey’s in decent form and as long as she’s left with too much to do late on, she’s the one to beat at 9/4 BOG.
Mo Henry is, after just three runs, by far the least exposed runner here, but ran creditably in a couple of 6f defeats on turf, before making a winning A/W debut at Wolverhampton over 5f 17 days ago. He ran far better than a 0.75 lengths victory would suggest that day and he’ll be looking to continue his progression here. he likes to get out early and get on with it and if allowed to run the race his own way, might prove difficult to beat. He has, however, not been too leniently treated with an opening mark of 78, but that’s reflected in his 3/1 BOG price.
Rock Charm was very unlucky to be defeated by a nose at Wolverhampton last time out over 9.5f in a tight finish where the first five home were separated by just one length and the horses in 4th, 5th & 6th places that day have all gone on to win in the last month since that race. He was staying on strongly that day and the extra half furlong might be all that’s needed to get him off the mark. he’s improving all the time and has been treated well by the assessor with just a 1lb rise for that near miss, which will keep him competitive here today at 3/1 BOG.
The big danger is Sabre Rock, who comes here off the back off a course and distance win here last month. That was his first win after opening his career with 12 straight defeats, but his best runs have been over today’s 1m2f and that win LTO was his yard debut for Julia Fielden and also the first time he’s been ridden by Shelley Birkett, who once again claims 5lbs on him today.
Sabre Rock, like Rock Charm, is also priced up at 3/1 BOG and is also only raised 1lb for his last effort. Julia is a decent, if often under-rated, trainer who could probably still get some more improvement out of this horse, who seemed to have something in reserve when winning last time.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Anastazia / Rock Charm @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : Coral)
Anastazia / Sabre Rock @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : generally)
Mo Henry / Rock Charm @ 16.33/1 (10/3 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Mo Henry / Sabre Rock @ 16.33/1 (10/3 & 3/1 : Stan James & Betfair SB)