Stat of the Day, 31st December 2014
Congratulations to those of you took the E/W option at 6/1 about Midnight Request on Tuesday, as you at least made a small profit from his third placed finish, as my fears were realised when he had nothing left after the last to mount a serious challenge.
It was virtually a line of three horses coming over the last, but ours didn’t have the kick of his two rivals and was eventually beaten by just over 4 lengths on the run-in. His 4/1 SP was a couple of points shorter than BOG, but that’s scant consolation and typical of the way our month has gone.
Last SotD of the year and I’d love to go out on a winner, so with that in mind, we’re tackling the mud in the…
Where Maurice Linehan will claim 3lbs aboard Jonjo O’Neill’s 5yr old gelding Last Shadow, who can currently be backed at 3/1 BOG for this 2m 4.5f, Class 4 handicap hurdle on heavy ground.
There is a stack of data to support the claims of this horse, so let’s crack on…
1. Jonjo’s handicap hurdlers have won 14 of 54 (25.9% SR) races of 2m 4f and beyond on heavy ground since 2009. Backing them has produced 46.4pts level stakes profit at an ROI of 85.9% to date. Those sent off at 7/1 or shorter have won 13 of 29 (44.8% SR) for 46.5pt (+160.4% ROI).
2. In the last five years, Jonjo’s record in handicap hurdle races here at Uttoxeter is 11/56 (19.6% SR) for 12.5pts (+22.3% ROI) with horses priced between 9/4 & 15/2.
3. Maurice Linehan is 28/153 (18.3% SR) on the yard’s handicap hurdlers to date and the 80.6pts profits generated equate to some 52.7% of stakes invested. On heavy ground, he’s 4/15 (26.7% SR) for 14.9pts (+99.3%ROI), whilst his record here at Uttoxeter is 2/9 (22.2% SR) for 12.74pts (+141.6% ROI).
4. When the horse is priced between 13/8 and 9/1, Maurice has a 22/83 (26.5% SR) record on the O’Neill string, producing 40.7pts (+49% ROI) profit, from which there’s a 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 20.9pts (+232.1% ROI) record on heavy ground and they are 1/1 here at Uttoxeter on heavy, which was Last Shadow’s course and distance win last time out, some 46 days ago.
5. The horse, Last Shadow also has some good numbers to support his nomination, as follows:
He’s 1/1 here at Uttoxeter and 1/1 at this trip, both achieved via that course and distance win last time out.
He has two wins and a runner-up finish from four starts on heavy ground.
He’s 1/1 under today’s jockey (that same C&D win!)
He’s 2 from 4 at this Class 4 level and 3 from 9 on left handed tracks.
His fairly comfortable win last time out came after a 60-week break from the track and was only his third outing in almost 22 months, so that possibly explains why he appeared to be leniently treated off a mark of 105. That said, he’s only up 5lbs for that win and he’s entitled to come on for having had the run.
I think his ability to handle the testing ground is a key factor here today and in what doesn’t look too strong a line-up, he could offer some good value at his current odds. So, the call is a 1pt win bet on Last Shadow at 3/1 BOG. I’m using bet365 today, but this price is pretty widely available, as you’ll see when you…
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