Double Dutch, 3rd January 2015
Regular readers will know exactly how cyclical results can be for the Double Dutch, a service which needs pretty much everything to fall into place at the same time!
At the moment, we’re in one of those frustrating runs, where the selections run well and we’re finding winners on a regular basis, but we’re not quite making the doubles stick.
Yesterday saw us miss out on a win by three parts of a length, courtesy of Haadeeth’s inability to see out the race to a satisfactory outcome. The horse did nothing wrong to be honest, nor did 7lb claimer Hollie Doyle, but Yair Hill (Sod’s Law in application here) was a stronger finisher ridden by Chris Catlin who rode out a better finish than young Hollie.
Hollie is a decent apprentice, but she was outmuscled yesterday, but she’ll improve.
We’d got the chance of the double, because Red Tide won his third race from four since switching to 6f handicaps and he battled on gamely to get us on the right side of a tight (neck!) finish. With such narrow margins of victory, we could easily have had a double yesterday, but we could quite easily have had no winners. Red Tide became our 450th winner for DD from 813 races
Friday’s results were as follows:
Red Tide: won at 13/8 (adv 5/2)
Shades of Silk: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Haadeeth: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
Aficionado: 4th at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
450 winning selections from 1570 = 28.66%
141 winning bets in 407 days = 34.64%
P/L : +83.92pts (+10.32% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
The last DD of the current week see us tackle the following…
Trainer Paul Nicholls and jockey Sam Twiston-Davies are not only both in good form, they have excellent records here at Wincanton as individuals and also as a partnership and come together here with Black River, who came good when winning last time out at Taunton on soft ground. he was 2/2 in France on very soft/heavy ground, so the mud shouldn’t worry him too much in what looks a weaker than usual renewal of this race. He’s currently priced up at 13/8 BOG, but that probably says more about the quality of his rivals…
…the best of which I’d expect to be the Nicholls’ apparent second string (but you never know!) Rebel Rebellion, a decent chaser in his own rights, but who has been in the grip of the assessor for a while. Second in a grade 3 event last March off 146, hasn’t really coped with a rise from that mark, but he’s back down to 143 and with a more than capable 7lb claimer on his back, he has a real chance at the weights today. His jumping is sound (never fallen), he loves the mud, copes well with small fields and prefers these right handed tracks.
He runs well when competing within a month of his last run and he’s 4 from 10 when carrying 11-2 to 11-5. Statistically he actually looks a decent bet here at 6/1 BOG. I might have a small E/W flutter too.
I don’t usually get involved in these mares’ bumper contests, but if I’ve read it right, this looks an ideal DD type of race ie lacking in quality and hopefully only two real contenders.
Monbeg Dolly is an interesting debutant here after making the frame in two of three starts in point to point races. Stamina really shouldn’t be the issue here today and her trainer has 2 3% strike rate here in the last 4 years, whilst her jockey’s record is 20% in the same time frame and when Maguire rides for McCain here, the strike rate is also 23%. You can get 5/2 BOG about this one.
The form horse, however, is The Way It Works, who has been progressing nicely in bumpers finishing 331, so she already knows what the game is about. She’s clearly happy at the trip and having won on soft ground at Bangor last time out, conditions underfoot should also suit her well. Her 7lb penalty for that win is negated by her jockey’s claim and I expect her to be on the premises again at 15/8 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Black River / The Way It Works @ 6.55/1 (13/8 & 15/8 : Paddy Power)
Black River / Monbeg Dolly @ 8.19/1 (13/8 & 5/2 : Betbright)
Rebel Rebellion / The Way It Works @ 18.25/1 (6/1 & 7/4 : Bet365, BetVictor & Stan James)
Rebel Rebellion / Monbeg Dolly @ 23.50/1 (6/1 & 5/2 : Stan James)