Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2015
We got off the mark for 2015 at the second time of asking yesterday with a fine 6/1 win from Teddy Tee, who relished both a huge step up in trip and his handicap debut to score by over four lengths at an SP of 7/2, meaning we got 171% of that and that kind of price is the key to long term profits.
Brian Harding rode him brilliantly biding his time to ease into the lead with the only worrying moments coming in the run up and away from the final flight, where he looked very green and darted about quite a bit. Yet, he stayed the trip, finished strongly and will no doubt come on for the experience.
Hopefully some of you took heed of me flagging up the Harding/Richards alliance, as trainer Nicky Richards’ four horses at Ayr yesterday all won and were all ridden by Brian Harding in a 4-timer that paid 83/1 at SP and a whopping 260/1 at the 10.00am prices.
I backed all four as singles, but I certainly didn’t do the 4-timer, perhaps one of you did!
Back to the all-weather today, as some of the jumps cards look very tricky indeed and our selected race is the…
A lowly Class 6, 4yo+ handicap sprint over 6 furlongs, where I’m going to be backing Mark Usher’s Black Truffle at 7/2 BOG.
Mark’s runners are in terrific form…
And he’ll be hoping to kick 2015 off in the same way he finished 2014. His horses have won 5 of their 11 races in the last three weeks and his last day at the track was New Year’s Eve when his runners won both of their outings.
He has a decent enough record here too…
In the last three years, his handicappers have won 14 of 101 races (13.9% SR) here at Lingfield, generating level stakes profits of 45.8pts at an ROI of 45.3% with those priced up at 3/1 to 12/1 winning 13 of 68 (19.1% SR) for 61pts (+89.8% ROI).
The horse is by Kyllachy…
…whose offspring have a better than average record here on the A/W at Lingfield over the shorter distance handicaps and since 2009, those running over 5 to 7 furlongs have won 27 times from 228 attempts (11.8% SR) and have produced levels takes profits of 31.7pts (+13.9% ROI). If we exclude the runners at each extreme of the odds market, we are left with a record of 25/174 (14/4% SR) for 80.4pts (+46.2% ROI) at odds of 9/4 to 16/1.
And he was only beaten by just over 1.5 lengths LTO, a week ago…
And over the last five years, Mark Usher’s runners are 13/50 (26% SR) when sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 within 11 days of a race which they either won or finished within 2 lengths of the winner. These runners have generated 16.7pts profits to date at an ROI of 33.4% and Mark is just one of a number of trainers in my “11-day returners” micro system.
Hayley Turner takes the ride today…
And she’s no slouch here at Lingfield either. Firstly, some data you might already know and then (hopefully!) some you won’t!
I’ll start off by telling you that over the last four years, Hayley has ridden the winner in 37 of her 257 Lingfield handicap contests, a strike rate of 14.4% resulting in level stakes profits of 44.4pts (+17.3% ROI) and on horses priced from evens up to 7/1, she is 31/116 (26.7% SR) for 52.7pts (+45.4% ROI).
What you might not know is that she has a particularly good record when riding horses at the top end of the market over the shorter distances. In the last four years, on handicappers here at Lingfield in the top three in the betting and priced between 15/8 and 7/1, her record is 18/57 (31.6% SR) for 37.8pts (+66.3% ROI).
Black Truffle has already won twice here at Lingfield over 7f and has scored a couple of wins elsewhere over today’s 6f trip. It has been widely reported that the horse struggled to overcome the effects of a gelding operation for some time, but has run into some decent form of late.
He ran on well to win at Kempton over today’s trip two starts ago and was very unlucky in running last time out. he was very badly hampered at Wolverhampton inside the final furlong as the two horses ahead of him veered left and this possibly cost him the chance of a follow-up win, as he only lost by a length and a half, having had to get going again.
There’s plenty above to suggest he’ll give another good account of himself here and hopefully we’ll be celebrating later after we’ve placed a 1pt win bet on Black Truffle at 7/2 BOG with Bet365. You can get the same price from Paddy Power & Hills, so you can take your pick, when you…
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