SotD : Monday 05/01/14
Stat of the Day
Stat of the Day, 5th January 2015
Black Truffle wasn’t beaten by far on Saturday, going down by 2.5 lengths or so, but in all honesty, he never really got going and never looked like winning. The end result was a pretty disappointing 6th of 8 runners, but it was actually such a tight contest that only three lengths separated the whole field.
His trainer Mark Usher had also expected better, according to his webpage and the fact he was backed in to 11/4 from our advised 7/2 suggests he was well fancied elsewhere.
It wasn’t to be, though, so we now move on to Monday and the…
Where 5lb claimer George Downing will ride Tony Carroll’s 9/2 BOG shot Queen Aggie in this 6f (give or take 4 yards!), Class 5, 4yo+ fillies handicap.
The trainer, Tony Carroll…
…fares best here at Wolverhampton over 5 to 7 furlongs in CLass 3 to 6 races with horses priced between 2/1 and 15/2. Such horses have won 15 of 58 (25.9% SR) races over the last five years, generating level stakes profits of 41.1pts at an impressive ROI of 70.8%.
The jockey, George Downing…
…has won on board 6 of the 19 (31.6% SR) handicappers he’s ridden here at Wolverhampton priced between 2/1 and 6/1, producing profits of 10.7pts (+56.5% ROI) in the process with five of those winners coming from the 14 (35.7% SR) Tony Carroll horses he piloted. These winners yielded 10pts profit at an ROI of 71.3%
The horse was seen as recently as Saturday…
…but that’s not a worry. Tony Carroll has a good record when turning horses back out within a week of their last run. In handicap contests over the last five years, such horses have won 52 of 273 (19.1% SR) races for level stakes profits of 48pts (+17.6% ROI), with those sent off in the 2/1 to 15/2 range winnnig 37 of 161 (23% SR) for 33.3pts at an ROI of 20.7%. Horses in that price bracket were 11/38 (29% SR) for 20.6pts (+54.2% ROI) in 2014.
And is no stranger to this track…
Queen Aggie might well only have a 4/38 record overall but she’s 3/22 on All-Weather and from that 3/10 here at Wolverhampton with three further placed efforts, including a narrow defeat on her last visit here on Boxing Day, when she was the runner-up to Rouge Nuage, who has a 12021 record here, so no disgrace there.
Our runner goes off the same mark as her last two outings and with recent form of 1323, she’s one of only two horses in this field with a win in their last five races, Elthaam being the other, but there’s no guarantee that one will take to this new surface.
This looks a weaker race than the last couple of races Queen Aggie has contested and off that same mark of 70, she’s every chance today, so it’s simply a 1pt win bet on Queen Aggie at 9/2 BOG with Bet365, whilst a full market overview is available when you…
…click here for the latest betting on the 1.50 Wolverhampton
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
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