Stat of the Day, 6th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2015

Queen Aggie was withdrawn from action shortly after 9am on Monday morning, having been declared as lame, meaning there’s no action for me to report/comment on.

Tuesday sees us heading off to North Wales and a 3 mile, Class 4 handicap hurdle on predictably soft ground for the nine runners due to compete in the…

2.40 Bangor:

Where it might at first seem that I’ve finally lost the plot in putting up a 9yr old without a win in his last 20 (yes, twenty!) races, but trust me, there’s more to this one than might first meet the eye.

The horse is called Bourne, he’s currently priced at 4/1 BOG, he’s trained by Donald McCain and will (as is usually the case!) be ridden by Jason Maguire, which is all good news, because…

Both as individuals and as a team, they excel at Bangor…

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All the following stats I’m quoting about McCain & Maguire here at Bangor relate to the last four years…

In all races : McCain is 65/276 (23.6% SR) for 90pts (+32.6% ROI) profit, Maguire is 45/153 (29.4% SR) for 101.9pts (+66.6% ROI) and together, they are 40/140 (28.6% SR) for 77.8pts (+55.6% ROI).

Over hurdles : McCain is 43/170 (25.3% SR) for 88.7pts (+52.2% ROI) profit, Maguire is 31/90 (34.4% SR) for 100.9pts (+112.1% ROI) and together, they are 28/84 (33.33% SR) for 69.3pts (+76.9% ROI).

And in handicap hurdles contests at 11/2 or shorter : McCain is 9/34 (26.5% SR) for 8.1pts (+23.8% ROI) profit, Maguire is 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 6.7pts (+35.3% ROI) and together, they are 6/18 (33.33% SR) for 7.7pts (+42.8% ROI).

The horse ran just three days ago at Newcastle…

…but that’s not a concern despite his advancing years. Over the last five years, handicap hurdlers aged 8 & 9 who ran in the past seven days and also ran at least one other race in the previous three months (ie fit and not just recovering from a comeback run), have won a more than reasonable 84 of 368 races when sent off at odds of evens to 8/1, a 22.8% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 84.4pts at an ROI of 22.9%.

Only 3 of those 368 ran here at Bangor, but two of the three won, generating 5.36pts profit in the process. The fact that this race is a three-miler still doesn’t concern me, as from the 368 runners above, the record at 3m to 3m2f is 14/44 (31.8% SR) for 30pts (+68.3% ROI) profit.

You didn’t misread earlier, he has lost 20 on the bounce…

…which must mean he’s due a win! 😀

Seriously though, in the last five years, Class 2 to 5, NH handicap runners who have lost 20 or more consecutive races and now race off a mark below their last winning mark actually then went on to win 114 of 1112 (10.25% SR) races for 252.3pts (+22.7% ROI), which isn’t bad at all for long-term losers. But interestingly, when there’s a bit (but not too much!) money around for them and they run in SotD territory, they suddenly look a very viable betting prospect.

Sent off at odds of 3/1 to 7/1, as Bourne is likely to be, there has been 54 winners from 251 runners, a very healthy 21.5% strike rate and excellent level stakes profits of 82.5pts at an ROI of 32.9%. And 9yr olds have a 14/48 (29.2% SR) record for 38pts (+79.1% ROI) at those same odds. Perhaps I’m not going crazy after all!

Bourne was only touched off by a head over 2m6f on soft ground at Newcastle on Sunday, staying on well to get so close to an in-form winner who was receiving 17lbs from our runner. Our boy runs off the same mark of 105 today and is no more than a couple of pounds heavier/lighter than his main rivals which should make him more competitive here, as should the extra distance, based on how he finished last time out.

It’s not easy to be bullish about a horse on a 20-race losing streak, but his performance on Sunday allied to the stats above suggest today could be his day at last and so, it’s a 1pt win bet on Bourne at 4/1 BOG with Boylesports. You can also get that same price at Bet365 and BetVictor on a BOG basis, whilst Ladbrokes’ 4/1 won’t become BOG until after 9.00am, so why not…

…click here for the latest betting on the 2.40 Bangor

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today’s racecard.

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