Double Dutch, 6th January 2015
Monday was, unfortunately, another of those winner/runner-up days, I’m afraid as once again we left empty handed.
Our sole winner came at Musselburgh, where Aye Well’s withdrawal left all our hopes for the race with Blackwater King, who was a length and a half up and pulling away approaching the last when his nearest rival was a faller, leaving our runner with a simple run in to score by 14 lengths.
This, however counted for nothing, because Krakatoa King had been undone 20 minutes earlier by a shock 33/1 winner who made virtually all the running and was easily travelling best of all on his way to a 5 lengths victory. In all honesty, it is only due to the valiant efforts of our jockey James Banks that we even got that close to landing a blow, as he was hard at work from a long way out just to keep us in contention.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Krakatoa King: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
King Edmund: u/p at 5/2 (adv 7/4)
Blackwater King: won at 5/2 (adv 13/5)
Aye Well: non-runner (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
452 winning selections from 1578 = 28.64%
141 winning bets in 409 days = 34.47%
P/L : +79.92pts (+9.78% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
We’ll kick off at the Rolleston beaches in the…
A solid looking favourite on form, Forced Family Fun has however yet to race at the quirky Southwell track. On the bright side he was an easy soft ground winner two starts back on the flat, and was most recently seen winning over hurdles, again on soft ground. His galloping style should suit the track and I think he’ll probably win.
If it’s not to be the jolly, then proven track specialist Hussar Ballad can take advantage. Mel Brittain’s US bred (by Hard Spun) has shown his liking for the fibresand with two wins from two starts at around this distance (he was outpaced on his only other run here, over an inadequate mile). Although he bids to win off a career high mark of 69, he retains upside potential on this strip.
If we survive leg one, we’ll not be waiting long to round out our double today, as this looks a race with a lot more quantity than quality. At the head of the market, Go Conquer is surprisingly weak. “Surprisingly”, because he has won on soft ground, is unbeaten in two starts under rules, and his trainer Donald McCain goes exceptionally well here at Bangor.
True, he has a seven pound penalty to lug, and faces a rival already rated 130, implying Go Conquer would have to run to 137 to win. That assumes Fascino Rustico will run at least to his rating on this first start for Dan Skelton. On his prior start, when trained by Paul Nicholls, Fascino Rustico was travelling well and in contention before unshipping at the second last.
He’s fallen in two of his last three starts, so clearly has some jumping issues, but I’d expect those Skelton boys to have schooled him intensively since his arrival, and he ought to be a bit better today. The ground will be no problem to him and nor will the trip, so he should go close.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Forced Family Fun / Go Conquer @ 6.92/1 (7/4 & 15/8 : Coral, Hills)
Forced Family Fun / Fascino Rustico @ 6.56/1 (7/4 & 7/4 : bet365, Boyle)
Hussar Ballad / Go Conquer @ 10.52/1 (3/1 & 15/8 : Hills, BetVictor)
Hussar Ballad / Fascino Rustico @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : general)