Stat of the Day, 7th January 2015
For the second day in a row, our selection was a non-runner and this time it was because was reported to have “not eaten up”. It is frustrating, of course, but the time/effort I put into these daily pieces is rarely a waste of my time, as the data will always “keep” for another day.
In fact the McCain/Maguire/Bangor hurdles angle paid almost instant dividends as Lough Derg Walk came home at 20/1 in the 1.40 race. I “only” had a small punt at it, but at a Betfair SP of 65.53, it set the tone for what was personally a decent day’s punting.
But I digress, as usual. So, turning to the job in hand, hopefully a third time lucky at getting some action this week sends us scurrying off to the All-Weather for a crack at the…
And a 5/2 BOG bet on hat-trick seeking Archie’s Advice, who…
is trained by A/W handicap specialist Keith Dalgleish…
Keith is one of those trainers to follow on the A/W, because you never seem to be far away from another Dalgleish winner. On the A/W, he has already tasted success with 79 of his 431 (18.3% SR) runners, producing level stakes profits of 71.2pts at an ROI of 16.6%. That’s an excellent strike rate and return from blind backing and I could stop there and be happy with the advice and go and put my feet up, but I won’t!
From that 79/431 stat, were going drill down to see how today’s race fits in, so the first port of call is Keith’s A/W record here at Kempton, where we see a 17.9% strike rate (10 winners from 56) and and ROI of 31.6% from 17.7pts profit, which is very nice indeed, but there’s more!
In A/W handicaps, he’s 56/316 (17.7% SR) for 93.7pts (+29.8% ROI) profit and here at Kempton, the corresponding numbers are 9/47 (19.2% SR) for 20.4pts (+43.3% ROI).
And in all A/W handicaps at Classes 5 & 6 ie the low grade stuff, he has won 48 of 227 (21.2% SR), generating 119.3pts profit at good return of 52.8% of stakes.
Our jockey is Joe Fanning…
…an excellent judge of the pace of the race, which isn’t always easy on artificial surfaces, but just a couple of brief A/W stats about Joe: In the last six years, you could have backed each of his 2450 A/W rides blindly and still made a modest profit. A £20 bet on each of them may well have seen you wager £49,000, but the 405 (16.5% SR) winners would have netted you £3290 profit, a handy 6.7% return on your money. Not life-changing money, but tax free return at double what a bank would pay you and some!
From 2450 rides, I could spend hours breaking it down into little niche areas, but the one I will finish this section with is the fact that Joe is 8/22 (36.4% SR) for 6.45pts (+29.3% ROI) profit in Class 5 handicaps here at Kempton on horses priced up at Evens to 5/1.
He also rides very well on Keith’s horses, as follows…
On the A/W : 38/170 (22.4% SR) for 36.6pts (+21.7% ROI)
In A/W handicaps : 26/125 (20.8% SR) for 26.8pts (+21.6% ROI)
A/W hcps over 10 to 14 furlongs (11 today) : 10/22 (45.5% SR) for 26.2pts (+118.8% ROI)
A/W hcps, 10-14f and priced 5/4 to 9/1 : 10/18 (55.6% SR) for 30.2pts (+167.4% ROI)
Our horse is 2/2 on the A/W…
…and not only seeks an A/W hat-trick, comes here looking to complete a course hat-trick, defending his unbeaten 2/2 record here at Kempton. He’s 2/2 overall on A/W and steps up to 1m3f after winning all three efforts at 9.5f and 10f. He’s also 3/3 when sent off at 4/1 or shorter and the way he stayed on to take the lead in the final half furlong suggests he’ll relish the extra 220 yards here.
In fact, he edged out Luca Cumani’s Past Forgetting by half a length that day and Luca’s horse has since stepped up to today’s trip and up a grade to Class 4 to win here over today’s course and distance four weeks ago.
Archie’s Advice has had a bit of rest after those back to back wins, but if the form holds out from his last run and Past Forgetting’s subsequent victory, then we really should be collecting from a 1pt win bet on Archie’s Advice at 5/2 BOG. I’ve placed my bet with Bet365, but the same terms are available from Betfred / Totesport, whilst Ladbrokes also offer 5/2, but don’t forget they’re non-BOG until 9.00am for some reason!
You could, of course, choose to wait and see how the market responds later and if that’s your plan, then I advise you to…
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