Double Dutch, 7th January 2015
We’re in a bit of a tailspin on DD at the moment, something which has happened from time to time in the past, and is largely a factor of a betting approach which requires us to find the winner of two races (notwithstanding that we have two shots at each).
I (Matt) put up Tuesday’s pair, and we were sunk in the Southwell quicksand before one o’clock, as Forced Family Fun failed to face the kickback… and so, largely, did Hussar Ballad, though he may have also been outclassed.
It’s riding deep there at the moment, and the fact that six of the seven winners either raced wide of the kickback or on the lead tells you what you need to know for the coming few meetings. (The other winner was the legend, General Tufto).
At Bangor, of course, our longer-priced pick got it done in grand style. Onwards…
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Forced Family Fun: 6th at 2/1 (adv 7/4)
Hussar Ballad: 4th at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Fascino Rustico: won at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
Go Conquer: 5th at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
453 winning selections from 1582 = 28.63%
141 winning bets in 410 days = 34.39%
P/L : +77.92pts (+9.51% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Twice more unto the breach, dear friends…
It’s unreliable and consequently competitive fare everywhere today, but this race does look to shape up between the top pair in the market, Pinkneys Prince and Money For Nothing.
The former was bidding for a double under similar conditions today when taking a soft fall just as he was looking dangerous and, with Daryl Jacob reunited after that penultimate day win, he may win under identical class, going and distance criteria.
Money For Nothing represents Alan King’s yard, and is bidding to shake off a dose of seconditis which has blighted him the last twice. Still, he ran genuinely enough on those occasions and – like the Prince – he’s got very similar circumstances to go at today. As a novice, he may also have more improvement than most in the field.
Uranium has been notably weak in the market, but big priced Alla Svelta could outrun odds of 20/1.
I’m a bit annoyed with myself for not backing Varsovian last night when he was 5/2. He’s got a ‘line of green’ profile on The Shortlist, and he looks sure to run his race under optimal conditions and with the ageless Jimmy Quinn doing the cajoling. So I’ll try to inflate his odds by putting him a Double Dutch instead! He’s unbeaten in two course, distance, and class handicaps here, and is only four pounds higher than the last win.
As it’s DD, we get a second bite at the apple too, and I’m siding with Suitsus, who has yet to be out of the first three in three course and distance starts (213). Luke Morris rides, which is a plus, and he should be able to track the pace set by Shelley Birkett on Monarch Maid most likely, and pounce in the straight if he’s good enough. He’s a decent price as a backup to find out.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Pinkneys Prince / Varsovian @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : bet365)
Pinkneys Prince / Suitsus @ 18.25/1 (7/4 & 6/1 : Paddy)
Money For Nothing / Varsovian @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : bet365)
Money For Nothing / Suitsus @ 20/1 (2/1 & 6/1 : BetVictor)