Stat of the Day, 8th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2015

As suggested, Joe Fanning continued his fine record aboard Keith Dalgleish’s horses on Wednesday.I’d told you he had a near-46% strike rate on Keith’s runners in A/W handicaps of 10 to 14 furlongs and he landed a nice 11/4 winner to prove my point.

Unfortunately for Stat of the Day, that was on board Les Gar Gan in the partnership’s only ride at Lingfield, whilst they were 0/2 at Kempton, including the disappointing 5/2 fav Archie’s Advice, who never really got into the race until it was too late and even then his effort didn’t last long.

Not the best way to start a truncated week, but three more chances to come, starting with Thursday’s…

1.30 Leicester:

A Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 2m 7.5f, where the lightly raced (3 starts to date) Medieval Chapel is a 4/1 BOG shot to score on his handicap debut and become the latest chase winner on this track for his trainer…

Nicky Henderson, who has a fantastic record here over fences…

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…despite not being represented too often! Since 2008, Hendo has saddled up 11 winners from his 23 chasers (7.8% SR) here at Leicester, recording level stakes profits of 19.7pts at an ROI of 85.6%. If we ignored the longer priced runners and concentrate on those sent off at odds of 13/2 or shorter we end up with 11 winners from 18 (61.1% SR) for 24.7pts (+137.2% ROI) profit.

He also does well with his handicap debutants…

..of which, since 2008, there have been plenty: 239 to be precise! 48 of these (20.1% SR) have been victorious, notching up 126.6pts profits at an ROI of 53%, which is impressive and can be whittled down as follows…

Those aged 4 to 7 are 47/226 (20.8% SR) for 133.1pts (+58.9% ROI), of which those travelling less than 3 miles are 46/209 (22% SR) for 144.7pts (+69.2% ROI).

In the winter season (Oct-Mar) that 46/209 becomes 37/165 (22.4% SR) for 114.5pts (+69.4% ROI) and of these, the horses with 2 to 7 previous starts to their name have won 32 of 134 (23.9% SR) for 119.3pts and if we finally aply a 15/8 to 5/1 odds restriction on this last set of data, we finish with 20 winners from 44 runners, a 45.5% strike rate yieding 45.8pts profit at an ROI of 104%

Talented claimer Nico de Boinville is in the saddle today…

…and he rides his claim very well indeed. over the last three years he has used his claim on 332 occasions, winning 59 (17.8% SR) of those races. These winners have generated massive level stakes profits of 301pts at an ROI of 91%, but I have to admit those profits are skewed by some big-priced non-handicap winners.

His record in handicap contests is still decent, though at 41 winners from 221 (18.6% SR) for 74.1pts (+33.5% ROI) profit with excellent figures when sent off at 15/2 or shorter with 35 winners from 96 (36.5% SR) for 91.3pts (+95.1% ROI).

In handicap contests, priced at 15/2 or shorter and claiming today’s 3lbs allowance, he is 15/38 (39.5% SR) for 40.7pts (107.1% ROI)

He also fares well on the Henderson string…

…winning 27 of his 89 (30.3% SR) rides over the last three years, generating 61.6pts (+69.3% ROI) profit. In handicap contests, the partnership has a 14/58 (24.1% SR) record worth 47.44pts (+81.8% ROI) from level stakes and when Nico has been claiming 3lbs, he has managed to clock up 10 winners from 36 (27.8% SR) for 11.5pts (+31.9% ROI), whilst his return on Nicky’s horses priced at 5/1 or shorter is 25 winners from 53 (47.2% SR) for 66pts (+124.4% ROI).

After just three starts over hurdles prior to this outing, Medieval Chapel might be somewhat of an unknown quantity, enabling us to get a better price than we might normally expect from a horse satisfying all the above criteria. As it sands, it is indeed a bit of a punt, but at the odds available one worth taking.

He has completed 3m 0.5f on soft ground in the past, so stamina should be fine and he’s by Ballingarry whose chasers have a decent record up to 3m 2f, so that too should help. All things considered, I’m happy enough to place my daily 1pt win bet on Medieval Chapel at 4/1 BOG and I’m placing that bet with Coral, because they’ll give me my money back (as a free bet, of course!), should he fall, unseat his rider or be brought down.

This 4/1 BOG is also on offer with at least five other firms, so my advice is to…

…click here for the latest betting on the 1.30 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today’s racecard.

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