Double Dutch, 8th January 2015
It was another disappointing day yesterday, folks, as we failed to even register a winner.
The nearest we got was Money For Nothing’s 2-length defeat to the 33/1 outsider of six runners at Taunton, a result that pretty much sums up the run we’re on ie see off the main protagonists and get done by a no-hoper. Our other runner, Pinkneys Prince fell three from home and slightly hampered Money For Nothing, but the latter never really looked like winning.
Then, a little later, both Varsovian and Suitus were poorer than expected/hoped. The former was doing his best work late on, finishing strongly, but hadn’t been kept as close to the action as he normally is earlier in the race, whilst the latter was never really involved.
After a couple of days away from DD (but not from work!), I (Chris) am back in the chair once more awaiting an upturn in fortune. We’ve gone on losing runs in the past and we’ve had runs of prolonged profitability, so there’s no panic here.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Money For Nothing: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Pinkneys Prince: fell at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Varsovian: 4th at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Suitsus: 6th at 7/1 (adv 6/1)
Results to date:
453 winning selections from 1586 = 28.56%
141 winning bets in 411 days = 34.31%
P/L : +75.92pts (+9.24% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
My take on Thursday’s action looks like this…
Where it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect another good run from Cody Wyoming, who is 12122 over fences this winter since joining Charlie Mann. The going conditions and the trip will suit him fine and he’s already put in a decent effort here at this track, finishing second over course and distance last time out under today ‘s jockey (and Geegeez’ hero of 2014!) Gavin Sheehan, who has also won on board this horse.
He was only beaten by a length and a half last time out, despite conceding 22lbs to the fancied winner, he now meets today’s rivals on a more even footing and there’s every chance of another win here at 5/2 BOG.
You could make a case for probably four of his five rivals here, but Russborough and Less Time come off long breaks and might need the run. The former is making his UK chase debut too and could be anything or nothing, whilst Less Time comes from an yard bang out of form at present, although Jonjo did finally land a winner yesterday after 61 consecutive losers over a 7 week run. I’m not quite ready to back his runners just yet!
Then there’s Tough Trade, who looks like he’s carrying too much weight for a horse that rarely wins or even places and has a habit of falling/unseating his rider. All of which leads us to 4/1 BOG shot Pearls Legend, who despite not winning any of his nine chase starts to date, rarely runs a bad race and is pretty consistent with a run of form reading 332F25342 over fences.
Pearls Legend did win twice over fences, both at today’s trip and both ridden by today’s jockey. he’s also by Midnight Legend, whose offspring tend to go well over fences and although I expect him to be second best again today, he’s the most likely back-up to my main pick.
At 11/8 BOG, Boston Blue is a little on the short side, but ideal as the second leg of a double, assuming we get the first one right! He has run twice over hurdles this winter, both here at Leicester, finishing third at the end of November, before romping home by 12 lengths last time out four weeks ago. He’s up in weight and up in trip since that last run, but he won so easily and looked to have plenty left in the tank. He has a 4131 record under today’s jockey and won’t mind the cut in the ground.
If, however, the step up in trip catches him out, I’d expect the 3/1 BOG Stow to be the main beneficiary this afternoon. He was, admittedly, disappointing on New Year’s Day (I know the feeling!), but prior to that he’d run a really good effort to finish second over today’s course and distance, only headed late on and beatern by a length and a half by the 6/4 fav who was carrying a stone less.
He does carry top weight here today, but Josh Wall’s 7lb claim should enable Stow to remain competitive at a track where he runs well (2122 in four starts, all over C&D) and we should also add that the jockey is 4/9 aboard this horse who is already 10/39 over hurdles, so he’s no mug!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Cody Wyoming / Boston Blue @ 7.31/1 (5/2 & 11/8 : Coral & Bet365)
Cody Wyoming / Stow @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : Coral)
Pearls Legend / Boston Blue @ 10.88/1 (4/1 & 11/8 : BetVictor, Stan James, Boylesports & Bet365)
Pearls Legend / Stow @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : BetVictor)