Double Dutch, 9th January 2015
Thursday’s results were an improvement on how things have been of late, but a winner, two runners-up and a third were neither good enough to give us a payout, nor were they anywhere near as close to landing the double as they might sound.
The truth of the matter was that, as expected, Cody Wyoming led Pearls Legend home by a length and a quarter to secure a forecast at £8.37 in the Catterick race, but Stow, our runner-up at Leicester, was comprehensively beaten.
The Leicester race was won by an enterprising run from Wayward Frolic who made all and won rather easily by some 54 lengths, despite slowing down to a walk late on. And with the big drifting (7/2 from 11/8) favourite Boston Blue finishing a further 18 lengths back, we were well and truly routed.
So on paper, it might look like we were close to a 13/1 double, the truth is that we couldn’t have been much further away.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Cody Wyoming: won at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Pearls Legend: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 4/1)
(The forecast paid £8.37)
Stow: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Boston Blue: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 11/8)
Results to date:
454 winning selections from 1590 = 28.55%
141 winning bets in 412 days = 34.22%
P/L : +73.92pts (+8.98% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Friday’s selected races are…
Where we have a pair of 7/4 BOG joint favourites and 7/1 the nearest horse and I can’t see this not going to either Pepite Rose or Highland Retreat.
Pepite Rose is a smart chaser and although she hasn’t quite recaptured last season’s form, she’s the class horse in the race. She got to within 3 lengths of Sire de Grugy at Sandown last year and has no issues with the trip or the going conditions and despite running under a penalty is still technically well in at the weights, based on her OR.
But she does concede overall weight to Highland Retreat who represents the very much in-form Harry fry, who also has a 25% strike rate here at Doncaster. This 8yr old was a Grade 2 winner over hurdles this time last year and has taken well to chasing this winter, finishing 17L off the winner on her first attempt after a 220-day absence, before going down by just a neck at Exeter.
Her third and latest effort over fences came a month at Huntingdon, when she dropped down to today’s trip, winning easily by 9 lengths. She’s fine on today’s good ground, but any rain and deterioration of the surface would play to her strengths even more and let’s face it, the ground isn’t getting any better today!
Admirable Art (3/1 BOG) has been running consistently well over the autumn/winter finishing 1323641 in his last seven starts and these Class 6, 7 furlong events are his optimal contests. He beat the re-opposing Dream And Hope by 2.5 lengths last time out (10 days ago) and with the latter now 3lbs better off, I expect a closer contest with little to separate the two.
Dream And Hope is lightly raced (just eight starts) and is unexposed over 7 furlongs, having tackled the trip on just three occasions, including a win at Kempton back in October. She was staying on well towards the finish las time out and if kept a little handier this time could reverse the form from that last run. As well as being 3lb better off, her 3lb claimer jockey has been replaced with a 7lb claimer, so there’s now quite a pull in the weights giving Dream And Hope an excellent chance at 7/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Pepite Rose / Admirable Art @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : BetVictor & Bet365)
Pepite Rose / Dream And Hope @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : Coral & Betfair Sports)
Highland Retreat / Admirable Art @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : Bet365)
Highland Retreat / Dream And Hope @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : Bet365)