Double Dutch, 10th January 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 10th January 2015

At 10/1, it wasn’t the biggest double we’ve ever landed for DD, but it was at least a welcome return to winning ways and a change in fortune, perhaps?

It was also a far better return than the 5.88/1 return at SP, reiterating the need to take the BOG prices where possible, because Highland Retreat was backed (7/4 to 5/6) as though he couldn’t lose, but lose he very nearly did!

Emily Gray came from an absolute mile off the pace to finish strongest of all and was only denied a 14/1 shock victory by a nose with our other runner Pepite Rose fading into third place a further length and a half back.

We then had an anxious 4 hour wait for our Wolverhampton race, but Admirable Art made it a worthwhile one as he stayed on well to deny a pair of dead-heated runners-up by just half a length. And it was such a tight race that our second pick Dream And Hope ended up in 6th place, despite only being beaten by 3.5 lengths (a little over 2 lengths separated the first five home).

So, on a day of tight margins, we managed to get our noses in front and we could do with more days like that.

Friday’s results were as follows:

Highland Retreat: won at 5/6 (adv 7/4)
Pepite Rose: 3rd at 11/4 (adv 7/4)
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Admirable Art: won at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Dream And Hope: 6th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
456 winning selections from 1594 = 28.61%
142 winning bets in 413 days = 34.38%

Stakes: 825.50pts
Returns: 902.92pts

P/L : +77.42pts (+9.38% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Our last two DD races of the current week are as follows…

2.50 Wetherby:

Centasia was very impressive when winning by 6 lengths on soft ground at Doncaster four weeks ago, when ridden by today’s jockey Dougie Costello for the first time. She’s now entitled to come on again after that run, seeing as it came after an absence of almost 11 months and today looks an excellent opportunity to further improve already impressive career stats. She won two and placed in one (Listed event) of four bumpers and she’s 1241 over hurdles.

They way she made all to win comfortably last time allied to having had the run makes her my pick to defy a 7lb rise and to go on to score here at 5/2 BOG, whilst my Plan B is Smooth Stepper from Sue Smith’s yard. The yard is in good form and this horse looks the type to improve for a step up in trip and for races in handicap company.

Smooth Stepper was a nice 4-lengths winner at Sedgefield on Boxing Day, opening up that margin of victory only on the run in, having been level with the runner-up over the last flight. The way he kept on that day would add belief to the fact that the extra distance here will suit. That runner-up was rated at 115, so 120 for our horse isn’t too onerous and 11/2 BOG looks a little generous. If he drifts at all, I might well take an E/W single on him myself.

*

3.10 Lingfield:

Where the ultra consistent Chicago Bere drops down two grades to tackle this Class 4 contest. Never out of the first three home in 7 contests (3333121) to date, including a Class 2 win here at Lingfield last time out. He beat Anonymous John by a length that day with that runner-up seeking to complete a 4-timer, so it was a decent effort. He’s up a couple of pounds for that win, but with 7lb claimer Gary Mahon taking over here, he should be very competitive at 100/30 BOG, especially as Gary has won both his races since Christmas.

The more likely winner for me, though is the 15/8 BOG lightly raced filly Turning Times who will be the in-form Ali Rawlinson’s only ride of the day, whilst trainer Charlie Appleby’s horses are in decent nick too. This horse is 221 so far in her short career, winning here over course and distance last time out. I think she’s the best horse in the race and the only concern I have is the 136 day period since she was last seen in action.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Centasia / Turning Times @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Paddy Power & Stan James)
Centasia / Chicago Bere @ 14.17/1 (5/2 & 10/3 : Betfred, Coral & Totesport)
Smooth Stepper / Turning Times @ 17.69/1 (11/2 & 15/8 : Paddy Power)
Smooth Stepper / Chicago Bere @ 27.17/1 (11/2 & 10/3 : Betfred, Coral & Totesport)