Stat of the Day, 13th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2015

We got the benefit of a well timed ride from Andrew Thornton at Plumpton, as his mount Dawson City proved he stays 3 miles and beyond in testing conditions. To the naked eye, he looked beaten, 4 lengths down approaching the last, but he still had energy in reserve to pass the long time leader to score by almost 5 lengths.

He was up and down in the market, advised by me at 11/4 overnight, hitting 6/4 at one point at one one before drifting back out to 5/2 at the off. We might have only made an extra 0.25pts from taking the early price, but all those quarters add up!

Tuesday looks as sparse as Monday did from a betting / quality / statistical viewpoint, but I’ve got one that might not seem obvious in the…

3.50 Fakenham:

A 5-runner race that won’t be for the faint hearted, as the form lines for the horses entered look littered with P’s and U’s. It’s a Class 4 handicap chase, over 3m 0.5f on good to soft ground and the way I’ve approached it is to take the 7/2 BOG 3rd favourite, Shinooki, trained by Alex Hales.

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Shinooki is in a real consistent run of form finishing 132221 in his last six outings, with the last three of those runs being the entirety of his chasing career to date, including a win in a Novice Handicap Chase last time out, here at Fakenham, 12 days ago over 2m 5.5f on soft ground

And although this is a step up in trip, he also has a very creditable runner-up finish over 3 miles at Ludlow on his chasing debut, when beaten by Royal Palladium who has since gone on to win again over 3m 1f.

He’s trained by Alex Hales…

Who has been profitable to follow in NH handicap races over the last 5 years, recording 34 wins from 311 runners (10.93% SR) and 94.5pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 30.4%.

More relevant to today’s race, though, is Alex’s record with handicap chasers running beyond 2m5f and up to 3m2f, where his record reads 18 winners from 107 (16.8% SR) for 49.4pts (+46.1% ROI). We currently have good to soft ground at present here but it really could go either way as things stand. if the winds prevail it could dry out to become good or further rain could see us running on soft ground.

I mention the weather because of the 107 runners above, there has been 14 winners from the 79 (17.7% SR) horses running on Good/ GtoS / Soft and this has resulted in 55.9pts (+70.7% ROI) profits.

Shinooki won a novice handicap chase last time out…

…And in the last 5 years, male handicap chasers rated 90 to 115 (Shinooki is 103) with less than 15 career runs ( Shinooki has 10) and who won a novice handicap chase last time out, have gone on to win again on 70 of 242 occasions; an excellent 28.9% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 53.2% at an attractive ROI of 22%.

Those whose last run was 6 to 45 days ago (ie rested but not rusty!) have won 60  of 192 (31.25% SR) for 61.4pts at a very good ROI of 32% in that same 5 year time frame.

This is, as I mentioned a 5-runner race where I’m happy to discard the two longshots (14/1 & 33/1) from the equation and this leaves us with three contenders. I’m not convinced the favourite offers much value at even money and our runner is receiving 17lbs from him and 15lbs from the next in the market.

I also said the form lines contained too many letters where there should be numbers. Shinooki is the only runner yet to fail to complete all of his races and if we compare his last six races (132221) to those of his four rival, we find 6 x P and 2 x U amongst the 24 entries. Ours is the least exposed here and is still lightly raced overall and looks on a very workable mark today.

I can understand why the market looks like it does, but I’m more than happy with it! The call for Tuesday is a simple 1pt win bet on Shinooki at 7/2 BOG, a price available pretty much everywhere, so feel free to take your pick of the bookies and also to…

…click here for the latest betting on the 3.50 Fakenham

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Here is today’s racecard.

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