Stat of the Day, 14th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2015

I opened Tuesday’s write-up with the sentence…”A 5-runner race that won’t be for the faint hearted, as the form lines for the horses entered look littered with P’s and U’s.”… and so it proved!

For the second successive day, we struck gold in the mud with a horse sticking to his task at 3 miles and beyond. Shinooki was the only runner with an unblemished record before the race and was the only one to emerge without any jumping errors, although he did nearly lose his jockey halfway round.

Kielan Woods did  a brilliant job to stay on board after a faller hampered his progress and despite temporarily losing an iron in the process, regained momentum and composure to ride a beautifully-timed staying-on effort in atrocious conditions, eventually winning by 18 lengths, pulling clear on the run-in.

The icing on the muddy cake came in the shape of us making an extra half point above his 3/1 SP and I now hope to keep the ball rolling with one in Wednesday’s…

3.15 Newcastle:

And what might turnout to be another slog in the mud in a 3 mile handicap chase on ground currently described as good to soft, but with more wet weather due! My selection for this race is last year’s winner and current 7/2 BOG chance Tutchec…

…who is trained by Nicky Richards…

…a trainer with a 25.6% strike rate here at Newcastle since 2008, viva 21 wins from 82 runners accruing 34pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 41.4% with a record over fences here of 5/27 (18.5% SR) for 5.1pts (+18.9% ROI) and in 3 mile chases like today, his runners are 4/18 (22.2% SR)  for 6.1pts (+33.7% ROI)

Tutchec is Mr Richards’ sole entry today…

…and therefore his only chance of prize money! And on days in the last five years when a solitary chaser has been his only runner anywhere, that chaser has won 15 of 72 (20.8% SR) races, recording 51.5pts (+71.5% ROI) profit. If it ran in a handicap chase, it won 20.4% of the time (11/54) and made 42.7pts (+79.1% ROI) profit.

If, like today, Brian Harding was on board Nicky Richards’ only runner of the day in a handicap chase, the record reads 6/26 (23.1% SR) for 28.9pts (+111.2% ROI) with those sent off in the 2/1 to 6/1 price band winning 5 of 14 (35.7% SR) for 14.3pts (+102.1% ROI).

Brian Harding has a good overall record on the Richards’ horses too…

In the last six years, Brian has ridden 79 winners for Nicky from just 412 attempts: a 19.2% strike rate yielding 91.8pts profit at an ROI of 22.3% and in handicap contests, that record  reads 44/237 (18.6% SR) for 61.1pts (+25.8% ROI)

More recently (ie since 01/01/12) their joint record in handicap chases is 16 winners from 72 (22.2% SR) for 42.3pts (+58.7% ROI) profit with those runners priced from 6/4 to 10/1 winning 15 of 60 (25% SR) for 27.6pts (+46% ROI)

And with this track in mind…

In that same three year time period as above, the partnership has 7 winners from 31 runners here at Newcastle, that’s a 22.6% strike rate , which has generated a handy 5.9pts profit at an ROI of 19%.

But is the horse any good, Chris?

Well, Tutcheche was good enough to win this race last year off a mark just 4lbs lower than today’s mark and that was on heavy ground, so any deterioration of the ground won’t bother him. He’s 5/14 in all chases and has a record of 3113 on good to soft ground. I’d be surprised if it doesn’t get worse, but that would also be fine with him having a 3/8 record on worse ground than Good to Soft.

He stays 3 miles readily enough with 2 wins and 2 places from six races at three miles and beyond and he hasn’t failed to complete any of his 10 chases over the last two years, so he jumps soundly.

He has a 113 record at today’s Class 3 level over fences, Brian Harding is 4/13 on his back and he has won 3 of his 4 races held in December/January in the past.

His record over today’s course and distance reads 314, with the worst result being a 4th place finish in a Listed event last time out. He was beaten by less than 10 lengths that day and finished ahead of a few subsequent winners, including being 3 lengths ahead of Broadway Buffalo who went to win at Class2 level next time out.

He also beat Mister Grez that day and this one has won both his races since. Should that form hold up from the Listed race, a 2lb easing in weight should make Tutchec really competitive today and I expect a decent run for the 1pt staked at 7/2 BOG on the Betfair Sportsbook.

If you can’t get on with Betfair, then other bookies are, of course, available including Boylesports who go 100/30 BOG and you can see their prices, when you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 3.15 Newcastle

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Here is today’s racecard.