Double Dutch, 14th January 2015
Double Dutch
Double Dutch, 14th January 2015
Yesterday can best be described as poor, I’m afraid. Poor races for poor quality horses running in poor weather and poor selections from yours truly. Can you detect how I thought the day went, yet? 😀
I actually expected our runners to go well, but they certainly didn’t!
Neither Pat’s Legacy nor Queen of Skies had a finish in them over 7f at Southwell, going down by 2.5 lengths and just over 5 lengths respectively, whilst over at Fakenham, Rendezvous Peak was a well beaten third and Cappielow Park lost his jockey after being hampered on the final bend.
All of which made for a second successive day without so much as a winner, never mind a double!
Tueday’s results were as follows:
Pat’s Legacy: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 10/3)
Queen of Skies: 4th at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
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Nouailhas: 3rd at 11/10 (adv 19/10)
Cappielow Park: UR at 9/2 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
457 winning selections from 1606 = 28.46%
142 winning bets in 416 days = 34.13%
Stakes: 831.50pts
Returns: 902.92pts
P/L : +71.42pts (+8.59% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Wednesday will hopefully bring about a change in fortune via these two contests…
Like many Sue Smith runners in the past, Special Wells improved for the move into handicap company last time out, winning gamely at Wetherby over a trip that was probably on the sharp side for him. Today’s step up in trip should suit him better and a 6lb rise isn’t too onerous here as he represents an in-form yard and will be ridden by a jockey with a 3/11 record in handicap hurdles here.
Special Wells can currently be backed at 5/2 BOG, whilst the biggest danger to his follow-up bid, Avidity is a 9/2 BOG chance.
Avidity has two wins and a second place from just five starts to date, was good enough to contest a Grade 2 bumper before embarking on a hurdling career, where he was 4th on debut here at Newcastle, before winning last time out on heavy ground at Ayr. He’s probably a better horse than a Class 4 hurdler, but has been off the track for 10 months and now steps up in trip for his handicap debut. That said, he’s attractively priced here and ready to take advantage if the favourite falters.
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Both Scott Dixon and David Evans have good records when 5lb claiming jockeys rife their horses and with Spowarticus beating Black Dave by just a length the last time they met, I expect another close match between the two on the same terms as that last encounter.
The difference here, I suppose, is that Spowarticus looks like the only conformed front runner in the race and if allowed an early uncontested lead, he could well nick the race from the front and run away with an unchallenged 9/4 BOG victory: he’s certainly capable of winning from the front, if he takes to the surface here.
Black Dave, however, will pose a threat late on, provided he’s not too far off the pace entering the final furlong. He’s a really consistent type, whose only fault is that he doesn’t win often enough. His yard is in good nick at present and he showed signs of a return to form with a good performance at Wolverhampton last week when beaten by just a length and a half in a stronger contest than this.
Black Dave is 1133 here at Lingfield and has won over course and distance and also runs well at this time of year and these factors might just swing things his way at an appealing 4/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Special Wells / Spowarticus @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : generally)
Special Wells / Black Dave @ 16.50/1 (5/2 & 4/1 : generally)
Avidity / Spowarticus @ 16.88/1 (9/2 & 9/4 : generally)
Avidity / Black Dave @ 26.50/1 (9/2 & 4/1 : generally)
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