Stat of the Day, 15th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2015

Tutchec was beaten by Jack Frost on Wednesday, as was the whole Newcastle card which had to be abandoned due to parts of the track being frozen. The course was actually good to soft, bordering on soft underneath the ice, but the weather was the only real winner.

This meant we kept our powder dry (if a little cold) and we’ll use that point on Thursday’s selection who is entered for the…

3.00 Ludlow:

And what at 5/2 BOG, is a slightly shorter price than I normally take for SotD, but one I’m pretty confident of collecting from. It’s another chase in the mud for us today in this Class 3 Mares’ Novice Chase over 2m4f on what is currently soft ground, but more rain might arrive!

My pick here is Midnight Belle and it’s about her breeding and her suitability to the conditions today…

She was sired by Midnight Legend…

…and regular readers of this column will know that I like to back his progeny for one simple reason: they’re highly profitable, even by backing them blindly. I have quite a few angles regarding this sire, but I’ll just give you a small relevant sample today.

Firstly, if you backed every single one of his runners over the last 7yrs, you’d have made a profit every year. In fact you can go further back than 2008, but I don’t have the Betfair SP data!

Since the start of 2008, ML’s offspring have won 360 of their 2491 races to date: a massive sample size with a great 14.5% strike rate. When we review tipsters on Geegeez, we use a £10 level stake, so if you’d backed all those runners at Betfair SP (the nearest approximation I have to BOG odds), you would have made a cool £7098 profit from your £24910 outlay, that’s a yield of 28.5%

In chases…

…his “babies” have won 155 of 824 (18.8% SR) for 370.4pts at an ROI of 45% and in Novice Chases, they are 39/183 (21.3% SR) for 127.9pts (+69.9% ROI)

On soft (or worse, as it might end up!) ground…

His chasers are 41/216 (19% SR) for 107.1pts (+49.6% ROI) and in novice chases 9/45 (20% SR) for 33.5pts (+74.4% ROI)

There are actually an almost endless possible ways of refining the data from Midnight Legend’s runners, but here’s a little micro-system you might want to file (of course, you might not! 😀 )…

ML offspring aged 5 to 9 carrying 10st 5lbs or more at Ludlow are 17/60 (28.3% SR) for 120.3pts (+200.5% ROI) profit. From which they are 5/16 (31.25% SR) over fences for 12.9pts (+80.8% ROI), whilst the soft ground runners are 4/12 (33.33% SR) for 51.8pts at an ROI of 431.3%

And in relation to today’s contest…

Midnight Belle‘s profile looks almost perfect here, since going jumping, she has competed on soft ground on seven occasions, winning five times and making the frame on the other two occasions.
She has a win and a runner-up finish from her three visits to Ludlow.
And at 2m3f to 2m5f, she has won five times from eleven and made the frame on a further five attempts.

She’s a consistent performer, who is likely to enjoy the mud more than most and despite her being fairly short for an SotD pick, I’m happy to back Midnight Belle at 5/2 BOG with Paddy Power.

For the rest of the market prices…

…click here for the latest betting on the 3.00 Ludlow

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard.