Double Dutch, 15th January 2015
Wednesday was a bit of a farce all round, I’m afraid. I knew I had to go out early for a couple of hours in the morning, so I did the piece overnight and put it in the scheduler to go live at 8.00am. I had expected Newcastle to beat the weather, but they didn’t and the meeting was abandoned at… yes, 8.00am!
This left us with 2 x 1pt singles at Lingfield and my thoughts are that I wish that meeting had been called off too!
As expected there was little between our runners, Black Dave & Spowarticus, with the former beating the latter by one place and three parts of a length. Unfortunately for us, Black Dave had another 4 horses in front of him on a fairly tight finish where the first 7 home were only 3.5 lengths from front to back.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Special Wells: meeting abandoned (adv 5/2)
Avidity: meeting abandoned (adv 9/2)
Black Dave: 5th at 3/1 (adv 4/1)
Spowarticus: 6th at 5/4 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
457 winning selections from 1608 = 28.42%
142 winning bets in 417 days = 34.05%
P/L : +69.42pts (+8.33% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Thursday’s plan of attack is as follows…
Where the starting point has to be Great Choice. David Pipe’s horses are running well, Tom Scudamore is in good touch and together they are generally a formidable partnership. David’s horses tend to be amongst the best at dealing with heavy ground and he has a really good record in and around this trip.
Great Choice won PTP races in Ireland on soft/heavy ground, so he should cope well enough with trip/conditions and he was impressive enough last time out to finish 2nd at Cheltenham last time out. That race was probably much shorter than he wants, but was a useful pipe-opener after a 7 months break. He’s entitled to improve/come on for the run and looks the most likely here at 9/4 BOG.
He won’t have it all his own way though and 4/1 BOG chance Private Malone is a real danger. He finished 321 in three PTP races before coming back to the UK to record back to back hurdles wins. He is therefore unbeaten is his last three starts and looks an interesting prospect on his handicap debut.
Both his trainer and his jockey have decent records here at Wincanton and although his opening mark of 125 doesn’t leave much room for error, Private Malone could well still win, if he tests the favourite’s resolve and gives him a proper race.
Elhaam is the most interesting one here to me, she’s lightly raced after just five starts, but has already won on the A/W at Lingfield over today’s six furlongs and was a solid third over course and distance here 10 days ago. She seemed to take to the surface well enough and should benefit for that first experience of Tapeta.
Trainer George Margarson has a 12/43 (27.9% SR) record in handicaps here at Wolverhampton over the last four years and Elhaam is priced up at 2/1 BOG to improve upon those figures.
I’d then expect it to be a call between Barbs Princess and Mandy Layla. Both are priced at 4/1 BOG and both have an equally good chance of making the frame.
Barbs Princess runs off the same mark as she did when beaten by just a head in this race last year, but I’m concerned she’ll need the run, after a 7 months absence from the track, which just tips the balance towards Mandy Layla, who is fit after running well at Southwell just a week ago.
Mandy Layla was third last week, beaten by just a length and three quarters, with the winner Amenable going on to win again on Tuesday. That race was also Mandy Layla‘s first for 15 weeks, so further improvement could be in store today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Great Choice / Elhaam @ 9.35/1 (49/20 & 2/1 : Betbright)
Great Choice / Mandy Layla @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : SkyBet)
Private Malone / Elhaam @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : Bet365)
Private Malone / Mandy Layla @ 24/1 (4/1 & 4/1 : SkyBet)