Stat of the Day, 16th January 2015
After the weather’s intervention on Wednesday, we got back into action again on Thursday with another excellent run from one of Midnight Legend’s offspring, as the 8yr old mare Midnight Belle gave a good display of front running to land our fourth consecutive SotD winner.
This win means we’re already guaranteed to make a profit this month and with 2 weeks still to go, I’m hoping to rack some decent numbers up.
The only downside to Thursday’s win was that my already-borderline 5/2 BOG was further reduced to 15/8 via a 25p Rule 4 deduction, but we still got paid out at slightly higher than 7/4 SP and every little helps.
With more fears about the weather, I felt it was prudent to head for the sand for Friday’s…
Where Joe Fanning, the master of pace reading, will ride Stonefield Flyer for Keith Dalgleish in this Class 6 contest over 6 furlongs.
The trainer, Keith Dalgleish…
…is one of the more recent additions to the top table of A/W trainers and he’s definitely one to keep an eye on, if you’re not already. Since saddling his first A/W runner in February 2011, his record on the artificial tracks is an impressive 80/437 (18.3% SR) yielding 68pts at level stakes for an ROI of 15.6%, which is truly excellent from blind backing. When Joe Fanning has been in the saddle, that record improves to 39/174 (22.4% SR) for 35.4pts (+20.4% ROI).
When you have something so simple that works, I’m reluctant to do the usual filtering job that I normally do, but most of you are aware that I rarely back beyond 12/1 and so with a simple odds cap of 12/1 in place, Keith’s A/W runners are 76/343 (22.2% SR) for 69.4pts (+20.2% ROI) with Joe Fanning’s record amounting to 38/149 (25.5% SR) for 37.6pts (+25.2% ROI) profit. A very handy weapon in your portfolio there.
I would, however, just like to give you 1 angle! The Fanning / Dalgleish / Lingfield axis is rare, but profitable with 5 winners from 13 (38.5% SR) for 2pts (+15.1% ROI) profit, whilst those runners sent off at 5/1 or shorter are 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 6pts (+66.7% ROI) profit.
Fanning judges the pace of sprint racing really well…
And in the last four years here at Lingfield in non-handicap races over 5 & 6 furlongs on horses priced from 2/1 to 5/1, he has five winners and a place from just 10 rides. The 50% win strike rate has so far generated 10.8pts (+108% ROI) profit at Betfair SP, which is very good too.
Stonefield Flyer was last seen 9 days ago…
…finishing third two grades higher than this contest and beaten by less than three parts of a length, despite conceding weight to two decent Class 4 handicappers. But there is, of course, a precedent here…
Keith Dalgleish’s horses who finished 2nd or 3rd last time out and not beaten by more than 10 lengths are 39/152 (25.7% SR) when that last run was less than 10 days ago. This 25.7% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 90pts at an ROI of 59.2%, with those runners sent off below 6/1 winning 34 of 107 (31.8% SR) races for 31pts (+29% ROI) profit.
Joe Fanning rode 32 of the original 152 runners, winning on 10 (31.25% SR) occasions for level stakes profits of 6.7pts (+21% ROI), whilst Joe’s figures with the sub-6/1 runners being 10/27 (37% SR) for 11.7pts (+43.4% ROI).
Being drawn out wide isn’t the best we could have got, but Stonefield Flyer is a confirmed front runner and will look to blast out early, get across and lead. Normally you’d worry about horses having to do this over 6f, for fear of burning out, but out runner has been running over 7f of late, so should have a bit in reserve later on. This, of course, isn’t an exact science, but if he’s allowed to lead, he’ll be hard to pass/beat.
In fact my own real quandary about Stonefield Flyer is the price. As I wrote this piece (almost 11pm), no prices were available for this race and he was third favourite in a very small market on Betfair, so I can’t currently call a price to take.
This means that there are three options available to us. We can take the 3.50 currently available on the exchanges, we can place a bet at Betfair SP or we can wait until the books open in the morning.
Personally, I’m inclined to wait, but each to their own. What isn’t in doubt is that Friday’s call is still a 1pt win bet on Stonefield Flyer at as yet undetermined odds!
I’ll update the piece with revised odds as soon as I get some, but you could always…
OK, so I took 9/4 BOG from SkyBet at 7.40am, then the 15/8 favourite was withdrawn, leaving me with a 30p Rule 4 deduction and a bet at 63/40. Best price is now 5/4 BOG, which is what I’ll have to settle up at. Sorry, guys.
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