Stat of the Day, 17th January 2015
Stonefield Flyer was a comfortable winner by the best part of four lengths yesterday, as once again Joe Fanning proved how good he is at reading the pace of a race.
It also meant that, for only the second time since inception, that we’ve now hit five winners on the bounce and thanks to Newcastle’s abandonment earlier this week, we’re now unbeaten in a whole week.
My only minor gripe about yesterday was the price taken and then the price received. I took 9/4 BOG at 7.40am, but by the time I came to update the blog, a non-runner has knocked me back to 63/40 and the best price available was 5/4, which is now the price we’ll declare at.
Mind you, we still made 1.25pts on a day where our runner was a 4/5 winner and as you all know, I’m more than happy to take over 156% of SP every day!
Although we had an easy win on the sand yesterday, my recent rich vein of form has come from jumps racing in testing conditions, so we’re now heading to the South West for a crack at the…
Which is a Class 3 handicap chase over 2 miles plus a half furlong on heavy ground and my selection is the 6yr old gelding Whispering Harry, who I’ve just backed at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor.
His trainer is Henry Oliver…
…who might not be a familiar name to some of you, but he’s one that I look out for, not that he has too many runners! He had his first ever runner in February 2013 and has been profitable to follow since.
In his short 23 month training career so far, he has already had 24 winners from 181 runners for a strike rate of 13.3% for level stakes profits of 62.4pts at an ROI of 34.5%. In handicap contests, he fares even better, with 22 winners from 121 (18.2% SR) for 39.6pts (+32.7% ROI).
Henry’s yard is just South of Worcester, an area notorious for flooding in recent years and I’m guessing that his horses are trained in muddy conditions, as his record in handicaps on soft/heavy ground are 10 winners from 42 (23.8% SR) for 14.8pts (+35.2% ROI) with a fantastic 6/12 (50% SR) for 12.6pts (+104.7% ROI) on heavy ground.
When his handicappers have been sent off in the narrow 2/1 to 4/1 banding, they have a 40% strike rate (14/35) with the resultant 22.1pts profit equating to 63.2% of stakes. These runners are 5/7 (71.4% SR) for 10.7pts (+152.9% ROI) on heavy.
James Davies takes the ride today…
Another who is hardly a household name, but he does ride well on the Oliver string, as a 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 69.1pts (+314% ROI) record will testify. In handicaps, he’s 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 15.1pts (+79.2% ROI) and in handicap chases, it’s 3/12 (25% SR) for 17.5pts (+146% ROI).
The Davies / Oliver / Hcp Chase / Heavy ground combo is 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 20.5pts (+227.8% ROI).
Whispering Harry loves the mud…
…winning three of his seven starts over obstacles on heavy ground so far, with the other four runs resulting in a runner-up finish and three third places!
Since the start of 2011 in UK heavy ground handicaps, horses with 2 or more wins on heavy ground from 10 or fewer efforts on heavy have 104 wins from 695 races, with the 15% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 139.8pts at an ROI of 20.1%.
In handicap chases, the figures become 74/438 (16.9% SR) for 88.2pts, also at an ROI of 201.1% and a 2/7 (28.6% SR) record here at Taunton producing 4.8pts at 68.6% ROI.
Conditions in general look ideal for him today…
We already know from above that the heavy going will suit his style, he has won each of his last three races at today’s trip. He also has a 131 record when ridden by James Davies, all over fences where he is 4131 and his figures at this Class 3 level read 3131. Whispering Harry has won three from six at odds of below 6/1 and is clearly in good nick.
I do like the look of him here and I’m sure he’s the one to beat, so why not join me in placing a 1pt win bet on Whispering Harry at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor? You can also get the same price from Hills or if you prefer to do your own research, you can…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS