Stat of the Day Update: 12/01/15 to 17/01/15
When an abandoned meeting is the worst result of the week, you know things are going well and that’s exactly what happened this week. We lost Tutchec (who I really fancied!) on Wednesday, but apart from that it was a perfect week in more than one way.
Firstly, all five of runners won and despite some non-runners affecting the odds on a couple of days, a healthy profit of 12.38pts was returned at advised BOG prices, and that’s the thing here. If you backed them at SP, you’d have still made a tidy 10.8pts, but you’d have left 1.58pts or 14.6% of SP on the table and I, personally, can’t afford to do that.
This brings me to that question of value again. I know some of you didn’t back all of them, due to price, yet even Friday’s bet at 5/4 was a value bet, because it won at 4/5. It might look like a value bet on paper, but it was actually statistically better than getting 9/1 about a 6/1 shot. There can be value at all odds.
I’ll finish my update with a warning/reminder of sorts. January is going incredibly well, as you can see below and with 19.88pts profit in the bag, the worst we’ll end up with is a 7.88pts return on the month. If you cast your mind back to the disappointing end to 2014 for SotD, where we lost 7.09pts in the final three months, the message is simple. A run of good or bad form is temporary, I knew that results would pick up for us as they have, I also know that this current run is not sustainable.
SotD is a long term project, that shouldn’t be judged on the merits of one or two months. November and December were admittedly poor, but in the 3.5 months since the start of October, we are now 12.79pts up and most services would settle for a yearly profit of 44pts!
Sermon over! 😀
Selections & Results: 12/01/15 to 17/01/15
12/01: Dawson City (adv 11/4 BOG) : won at 5/2
13/01: Shinooki (adv 7/2 BOG) : won at 3/1
14/01: Tutchec (adv 7/2 BOG) : meeting abandoned
15/01: Midnight Belle (adv 5/2 BOG [15/8 after R4]) : won at 7/4
16/01: Stonefield Flyer (adv 5/4 BOG) : won at 4/5
17/01: Whispering Harry (adv 3/1 BOG) : won at 11/4
12/01/15 to 17/01/15:
5 winning bets from 5
7 winners from 12 = 58.33% S.R.
POI = +165.67%
295 winners from 1020 = 28.92% S.R
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +259.57pts from a 1021pt outlay = +25.42% ROI
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD’s 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.