Double Dutch, 19th January 2015
The 11/4 favourite Oscar Sunset (adv 3/1) beat the 4/1 Southfield Royale by just over a couple of lengths at Taunton on Saturday to land us a nice £13.58 forecast, as the rest of the field were at least 10 lengths further back.
Unfortunately that forecast was the consolation prize, after I’d failed to pick the winner at Haydock 10 minutes earlier. In fact, indicative of how things have dropped for me lately on DD, I actually mentioned the winner in my write-up and dismissed it!
As it was, neither of my selected runners even completed the race!
Friday’s results were as follows:
Oscar Sunset: Won at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Pim Street: 2nd at 4/1 (adv 11/4)
(The forecast paid £13.58 here)
Carraig Mor: PU at 11/10 (adv 6/4)
Third Intention: fell at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
461 winning selections from 1620 = 28.46%
143 winning bets in 420 days = 34.05%
P/L : +69.54pts (+8.28% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
After a pretty cold night that has affected the day’s racing, we’re going with these for Monday…
The two form horses are the two 4yr olds in the race and as they receive a very handy 6lbs allowance here, should be the ones to focus on.
Urban Castle is a lightly raced filly, but all three starts to date have been here at Wolverhampton on the tapeta, so no track concerns here. She was a creditable 4thof 11 (beaten by 5L) on debut over 9.5f and looking like she needed further. A step up to 1m4f next time out led to a win by the best part of two lengths before a very satisfactory handicap debut over that same 12f trip last time out.
That was on Boxing Day and she was only beaten by a neck and after 3 runs inside a month, might have needed the near 4 week break she’s just had. Trainer James Tate has a 21% strike rate here at Wolverhampton and will look to add to that tally with a win from Urban Castle at 2/1 BOG today.
Similarly priced at 2/1 BOG (Coral go 9/4) is the biggest obstacle in her way. The slightly more experienced (6 starts, so not exposed) Archipeligo is another in good form and who likes the surface here. He made the frame just once in four starts on turf, but an 8 week rest and a switch to the Tapeta paid dividends a week before Christmas, as he won a 9.5f handicap by 3.5 lengths, before doubling up a week ago over 1m4f.
He beat Oratorio’s Joy by just a neck last week, and that was the horse that had beaten Urban Castle by a neck on her last run, so if the form plays out, there should be much between our two runners today. Archipeligo is up 6lbs for his win, whilst Urban Castle‘s 3lb rise makes her my slight preference here.
There might well be 11 runners here, but only three of them make any appeal to me, so I just need to discard one of them!
The one who looks best suited to conditions is Mountain of Mourne who won’t mind the mud at all for her hurdling debut. She won a Class 6 bumper on heavy ground at Wincanton almost 13 months ago, before contesting a Grade 3 bumper on heavy ground at Newbury, where she was only beaten by Definitly Red and Tea for Two, who have both gone on to win some decent races since, whilst Mountain of Mourne‘s only subsequent effort was at Cheltenham last March.
She was heavily beaten at the festival, but considered good enough to contest the Champion Bumper, hinting of her expected potential. It’s a little risky taking her on debut here, but she’ll have been well schooled and conditions will help her here at 5/2 BOG.
The one I’m going to use as back up is Risk A Fine, who could be a major player here if he settles down sooner than his previous two starts. He clearly has ability and plenty of stamina (PTP win in the past), but has had a tendency to pull too hard early on under Rules so far. Everyone knows about the Johnson/Hobbs combo and that it’s one to be feared and you can be fairly sure the team will have worked extensively with this horse to work out a strategy to calm him down sooner.
Despite his quirkiness, he’s very unexposed after just two starts (one over hurdles) and the potential for improvement looks better than that of the discarded Magheral Express, whose yard still isn’t in great touch, hence his omission and my taking of Risk A Fine at a generally available 100/30 BOG, although Betbright are offering over 7/2 as I write this.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Urban Castle / Mountain of Mourne @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : Betway)
Urban Castle / Risk A Fine @ 12.8/1 (2/1 & 18/5 : Betbright)
Archipeligo / Mountain of Mourne @ 9.5/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : generally)
Archipeligo / Risk A Fine @ 12.8/1 (2/1 & 18/5 : Betbright)