Stat of the Day, 19th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th January 2015

Whispering Harry was made to dig deep late on at Taunton on Saturday to repel his rivals in a pulsating finish, where the first four home were only separated by three necks!

But dig deep he did and he held on to win at 11/4 (adv 3/1) to become SotD’s 6th winner on the bounce.

It was really cold overnight on Sunday and faced with the prospect of losing two of the day’s three meetings, as well as a swathe of predicted non-runners, I have waited until Monday morning to pick the next selection, who goes in the…

3.20 Exeter:

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Where, after the loss of Bangor’s card, Seamus Mullins’ 5/2 BOG Somchine is the tentative selection.

Seamus doesn’t come here often…

…but when he does, his handicap chasers go well. They are 5/17 (29.4% SR) for 11.2pts (+66% ROI) level stakes profits in the last five years, with those sent off at 11/2 or shorter winning 5 from 10 (50% SR) for 18.2pt (+182% ROI) profit.

Somchine has been in good nick for a while…

His last five efforts over hurdles resulted in finishes of 22U23 before a switch to chasing has seen him record results of 131, including a win 16 days ago at Wincanton on heavy ground over 2m 4.5f.

In the last four years, horses running in handicap chases in the months of November through to April on soft (or worse!) ground, carrying 11-6 to 11-11 who won last time out within the previous 15 to 30 days, won again on 25 of 99 (25.3% SR) of occasions with level stakes profits of 36.5pts equating to 36.9% of stakes.

And those running on soft ground at odds of 6/4 to 10/1 are 15/52 (28.9% SR) for 32.6pts at an ROI of 62.8%.

Having waited to see if Bangor went ahead (which it doesn’t), time constraints mean a shorter piece than usual today, I’m afraid, but the stats are still relevant. Exeter are inspecting again later, but they’re quite optimistic.

So, with that in mind, I’m off to place a 1pt win bet on Somchine at 5/2 BOG with Coral, but you could always take the same price from SkyBet, as you’ll see when you…

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Here is today’s racecard.

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