Stat of the Day, 20th January 2015
No seventh heaven of any other terrible number-based cliché/pun for SotD on Monday. As with all good things, the winning run came to halt with Somchine’s defeat at Exeter and if I’m going to have a loser, best to have it on a day where it was difficult stuff all round.
The loss of Bangor, a poor A/W card and several non-runners at Exeter, meant Monday’s racing was largely uninspiring, but I did feel we had a chance with Somchine. However, it wasn’t to be and he ended up last of four, beaten by almost 10 lengths after weakening late on.
All of which means I’m looking for quick return to winning ways in Tuesday’s…
Where my selection of General Tufto might look a lazy and unimaginative pick, based on how well-known his exploits are at this track, but I assure you that there’s more gone into today’s piece than just quoting his career record. I’ll be doing that a little later, though! 😀
He comes into this race as top rated in the race and a clear 59/20 BOG favourite with Betbright, based on his past stats, but the top rating and the favouritism are a positive in this type of race…
...because in the last five years in low grade (C5 /6) A/W handicaps here at Southwell, it has been profitable to back male runners aged 3 and over who had the top OR in the race, were at the head of the market and were running at either the same class or one higher than their last run, which was also a handicap.
That’s a bit of a long sentence, but they are logical filters and in the last 5 years, such horses have won 72 of 158 (45.6% SR) races, a far higher number than would normally be expected in Southwell A/W handicaps (33.7% SR). This excellent 72/158 record has yielded 51.7pts profit at an ROI of 32.7%, which is improved by eliminating those shorter than we’d be interested in.
Such runners priced at 7/4 to 9/2 have a record of 39/91 (42.9% SR, course average at these odds is 28.4%) for 52.1pts (+57.3% ROI).
3lb claimer Joey Haynes takes the ride today…
…and Joey has a decent record with that claim, riding 10 winners from 96 (10/4% SR) for 116pts (+120.8% ROI) profit to date, of which he’s 4/20 (20% SR) here at Southwell, making 5.4pts at an ROI of 27%.
In handicaps using his 3lbs claim, he has 7 winners from 73 (9.6% SR) for 126.9pts (+173.9% ROI), from which he is 6/26 (23.1% SR) for 12.4pts (+47.6% ROI) below odds of 9/1 and 3/17 (17.7% SR) for 7.2pts (+42.3% ROI) here at Southwell.
And today’s worst kept secret…
…General Tufto‘s stats! He;s now aged 10 and in top form after a quiet time and today is his 151st start (150th on the level). And his stats are…
10/150 overall, but 13/91 on the A/W.
13/91 on the A/W becomes 13/77 here at Southwell.
13/77 here at Southwell becomes 11/55 over course and distance with his last four outings all being over today’s C&D with finishes of 3211.
He’s 3/9 when ridden by Joey Haynes, he’s 10/35 in the months of January & February and performs best in races of 8 to 11 runners (9/60). He has won 9 of 45 races when sent out within 3 to 7 days of his last run and has won seven races off today’s mark or higher.
There should be some decent early pace to tow him along and he’s well drawn in stall 1, meaning there’s a very good chance of him landing a third win inside 13 days, which is why I’m placing a 1pt win bet on General Tufto at 59/20 BOG with Betbright. 5/2 seems to be the norm elsewhere as can be seen when you…
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