Double Dutch, 20th January 2015
A good day for us yesterday with Urban Castle winning on the drift (11/4 from 9/4) at Wolverhampton ten minuted before the well backed (18/5 to 7/4) Risk A Fine romped home at Exeter to land us a quickfire 16.25/1 double.
Archipeligo was a warm favourite at Wolverhampton, but could only manage 5th place, beaten by over 10 lengths, but the highlight of my entire racing day was the Exeter contest.
I correctly identified the three main contenders (mind you, so did the market!), discarded the correct one and watched them fill the first three places, as Risk A Fine beat Mountain of Mourne by 12 lengths with Magheral Express the same distance further back.
The icing on the cake was the modest £9.90 return from a £1 exacta, whilst the trifecta paid £22 for those taking all three suggestions.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Urban Castle: Won at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Archipeligo: 5th at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
Risk A Fine : won at 7/4 (adv 18/5)
Mountain Of Mourne: 2nd at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
(The exacta paid £9.90 here)
Results to date:
463 winning selections from 1624 = 28.51%
144 winning bets in 421 days = 34.20%
P/L : +76.17pts (+9.05% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
The weather continues to affect ground conditions, but I’m hopeful of getting something back from these on Tuesday…
Which, on paper at least, looks a two horse race. On the one hand we have the very successful McCoy/O’Neill partnership with Beg To Differ at 13/8 BOG and on the other we have Henry Oliver’s Ozzy Thomas, who trades at 7/4 BOG.
The McCoy/O’Neill partnership is tried and tested and with AP having a fantastic record on non-handicap hurdles, it’s be foolish to ignore Beg To Differ, who shaped with some promise at Bangor last time out. he was third behind the 130-rated Fastino Rustico that day at a big price and further improvement is to be expected.
The fear is, however, that he might find Ozzy Thomas too hot handle if he repeats his level of run achieve at Towcester last time out (Boxing Day). He ran really well there and was a 4-lengths runner-up to Tea For Two. Henry Oliver is a rising star amongst NH trainers and with his yard in great form, this could be his latest winner.
Thorpe Bay represents the in-form duo of Mick Appleby and Ali Rawlinson, who are both going well individually as well as collectively and they bring Thorpe Bay back to the scene of all four of his career wins to date. He might be on a long losing run, but has run consistently well since returning to action this winter (24233) and it is anticipated that a drop in trip and class will do the trick today and get him back on the board at 2/1 BOG.
The interesting one here is the 4yo filly, Baytown Kestrel, who looks to have a very good chance at the weights, despite looking out of sorts last time out. She is, however, 4 from 8 on the A/W and a former course and distance winner, so can’t be dismissed lightly, especially when you consider her 2 from 2 record in claimers/sellers. You can get 11/4 BOG about this one.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Beg To Differ / Thorpe Bay @ 6.88/1 (13/8 & 2/1 : BetVictor, Stan James & Hills)
Beg To Differ / Baytown Kestrel @ 8.84/1 (13/8 & 11/4 : generally)
Ozzy Thomas / Thorpe Bay @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : Paddy Power)
Ozzy Thomas / Baytown Kestrel @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : Betfred & Totesport)