Double Dutch, 21st January 2015
Whilst a winning double at 6.88/1 isn’t going to make us rich, it does continue our recent recovery towards some semblance of form and by taking the BOG prices in the morning, we made a much better profit than the 9/2 paid out at SP.
Beg To Differ led and was headed before gamely battling back to take control on the run in at Wetherby and then 10 minutes later Thorpe Bay seized the initiative with a good two furlongs of the five left to run to run and score.
Our other runners didn’t far anywhere near as well, as Ozzy Thomas was unluckily brought down by a faller at just the third hurdle, whilst on the sand, Baytown Kestrel was badly outpaced late on and came home last of the six runners, some eight lengths off the pace.
It’s a good job we get two cracks at these races!
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Beg To Differ: Won at 11/10 (adv 13/8)
Ozzy Thomas: BD at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
Thorpe Bay : won at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Baytown Kestrel: 6th at 11/2 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
465 winning selections from 1628 = 28.56%
145 winning bets in 422 days = 34.36%
P/L : +78.11pts (+9.26% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Buoyed by recent results, I’m quietly confident of picking something up from Wednesday’s picks…
The hat-trick seeking Golly Miss Molly sets the standard here, especially with Luke Morris in the saddle once again. He’s 311 when riding this 4yr old. They were her last 3 runs, all on A/W and all over 1m4f and in all of them she looked like she had something in reserve, so today’s extra furlong might suit her even better. Yes, she’s up in weight again by another 4lbs, but her 5lb weight allowance is more than handy here.
There must be a general feeling that she’s to high in the weights, though, as I’m pleasantly surprised to be generally able to get 11/4 BOG about the best horse in the race, ridden by the best jockey and despite the price, Golly Miss Molly is the one to beat.
I would have gone with Ballyfarsoon as the secondary choice, but his withdrawal not only makes Golly Miss Molly’s chances better, it means I have to go with something else! And that horse is Lucky Dottie who has been kept fit over the winter building her stamina in three races over hurdles. She reverted back to the level with a good second at Kempton over 1m6f a week ago, where she was 2 lengths ahead of fourth placed Mountain range, who reappeared on Sunday to win.
If the form from last week holds out, then I’d expect Lucky Dottie to be the one to chase the favourite home and at 4/1 BOG, she’s an excellent backup plan.
The market suggests this is a three-horse race and I’m inclined to agree and with me not being particularly keen on the favourite Blue Aegean, she’s the one I’m going to discard. She carries a penalty for a win over 5f at Chelmsford, but but the added weight and the step back up to 6f are negatives, she was very poor at 6f last time around.
This leaves me with Harry Hurricane at 9/4 BOG and Volunteer Point at 100/30 BOG. Harry Hurricane found 5f too sharp for him in the past, but won well last time out over 7f coming off the back of a 170 day break. Both trainer and jockey are in good form and for a horse considered good enough to run in Listed Class three starts ago, there’s a feeling that there’s more to come from this one, who looks reasonably treated off 81, getting 7lbs from the favourite.
Volunteer Point was a course and distance winner on her sole run to date, five weeks ago and there is of course, the possibility that she could be anything or nothing! She overcame a terrible start that day to still catch up and win by three parts of a length, beating Gary Moore’s Dutch Golden Age to the line. Gary speaks highly of DGA, so that win might well be a good one and off a mark of just 75 here, Volunteer Point is dangerous.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Golly Miss Molly / Harry Hurricane @ 12.53/1 (31/10 & 23/10 : Betbright)
Golly Miss Molly / Volunteer Point @ 16.22/1 (31/10 & 16/5 : Betbright)
Lucky Dottie / Harry Hurricane @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : Betfred & Totesport)
Lucky Dottie / Volunteer Point @ 20.67/1 (4/1 & 10/3 : Betfred, Coral & Totesport)