Double Dutch, 22nd January 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 22nd January 2015

No DD hat-trick on Wednesday after Harry Hurricane was headed with 100 yards to run by a faster finisher to get beaten by just a length. As expected, the morning favourite Blue Aegean wilted under pressure late on again over 6f and a dropback to 5f will surely beckon. Our second choice Volunteer Point was a battling 4th, beaten by just over 6 lengths.

All this action came some 5 hours after Lucky Dottie had led Golly Miss Molly home by three parts of a length in a 1-2 finish, which was the perfect start to the day, especially with the added bonus of a 21/1 exacta.

So, in the end, we were a length shy of continuing our recuperation from recent losses, but we just missed out on a 16.5/1 payout. The bright spot from our race 2 defeat was a comeback day win for Freddie Tylicki after a spell on the sidelines following facial surgery after a nasty 5-horse incident at Wolverhampton 11 weeks ago.

Some things are more important than picking winners.

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

Lucky Dottie: Won at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
Golly Miss Molly: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 31/10)
The Exacta paid out at 21/1 here!
Harry Hurricane : 2nd at 11/8 (adv 5/2)
Volunteer Point: 4th at 4/1 (adv 10/3)

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Results to date:
466 winning selections from 1632 = 28.55%
145 winning bets in 423 days = 34.28%

Stakes: 845.50pts
Returns: 921.61pts

P/L : +76.11pts (+9.00% ROI)


Here’s how I’m going to approach Thursday…

2.40 Southwell:

Captain Future was staying on well when runner-up on both his handicap and A/W debut at Wolverhampton three weeks ago, when beaten by just two lengths by a horse with proven A/W ability. He shaped as though the step back to 6f would suit him and provided he takes to this surface as readily as he did at Wolverhampton, then he’d have to be in with a good chance today at 13/8 BOG and Captain Future holds Pancake Day (a former C&D winner) on that run.

In fact, I’m overlooking Pancake Day completely and going with Excelling Oscar as the backup runner here. The market are undecided as to his chances, but he’s on average a 3/1 BOG chance. And although he has two wins and a place from four runs over 7f here in the past, he does tend to finish weakly and the drop back to 6f might be the key to a stronger end to his race.

He does, however, have an affinity for the surface and with Conor Dore’s horses running well again (3/8 in the last fortnight and an overall 22.5% SR over 6f here since 2009), Excelling Oscar looks the main threat.


5.10 Chelmsford:

Urban Castle was an impressive 6 lengths winner at Wolverhampton on Monday, but was beaten by Oratorio’s Joy on Boxing Day over 1m4f, which should hopefully give us a clue here. Oratorio’s Joy was then only beaten by a neck at Wolverhampton ten days ago, staying on again and just failing to catch the winner. Considering the fact the she runs well when turned out fairly quickly and she steps up in trip here, then I think conditions are ideal for he dictate late on to win at 15/8 BOG.

Royal Batallion was just a length and a half further back in that latest race at Wolverhampton and re-opposes the favourite a pound better off today and is the likeliest to mount a challenge. This 4yr old by Sea The Stars is unexposed and progressive and should give another good account of himself and if this becomes a tactical affair, Royal Batallion could well be the one to prevail at 5/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Captain Future / Oratorio’s Joy @ 6.55/1 (13/8 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Captain Future / Royal Batallion @ 8.19/1 (13/8 & 5/2 : Betfred & BetVictor)
Excelling Oscar / Oratorio’s Joy @ 11.46/1 (10/3 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Excelling Oscar / Royal Batallion @ 14.17/1 (10/3 & 5/2 : BetVictor)

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