Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2015
It’s not often that you see a horse putting in its best efforts staying on in a 3m1f chase on heavy ground and trying to win the race from miles off the pace. However, that’s how Chavoy ran on Wednesday. He has bags of stamina, but just had too much to do in the closing stages to win.
A mistake 5 from home didn’t help either and although he looked full of running at the death, we had to settle for the runner-up berth at 7/2, a half point shorter than advised. 5/5 last week and now 0/3 this week means we need a winner soon to keep things moving, although fellow optimists will say we’re actually 6/9 of late. Hopefully we’ll be 7/10 after Thursday’s…
And a family affair with Sam Twiston-Davies riding the in-form Bally Braes for his father, Nigel, in this Class 4, 3m2f handicap chase on soft ground with them both having good records here at Warwick.
Father and trainer Nigel…
…has had 28 winners from his 156 runners at this track since 2008 with that 17.95% strike rate yielding 107.7pts profits from level stakes at an ROI of 69% and with today’s contest in mind, his record in handicap chases here since 2010 with horses priced in the 2/1 to 11/2 bracket readig 4 winers from 17 (23.5% SR) for 5.7pts (+33.6% ROI)
Son and jockey Sam…
…is 19/110 (17.3% SR) here at Warwick since the start of 2010 and in the last three years in handicap chases here at odds of 2/1 to 15/2, has won 5 of 17 (29.4% SR) for 14.7pts (+86.3% ROI) profit.
And together, they make a good team…
Since the start of 2010, Sam has ridden 267 winners from 1767 rides on his dad’s runners. This 15.1% strike is more than respectable, but the level stakes profits of just 4.4pts give an ROI of a mere 0.25%. They’re basically wiping their faces, but it’s a starting point for further analysis.
In handicap chases, over the last three years, for example, they have won 72 of 486 (14.8% SR) races together, accruing 90pts profit at an ROI of 18.5%, a far more palatable return for SotD purposes!
Bally Braes was a winner last time out…
…and Nigel’s male chasers who won last time around have “doubled up” 31 times from 186 attempts (16.7% SR) for 11.3pts (+6.1% ROI) profit and from this baseline stat, we can put today’s race into perspective as follows…
Horses running off a mark 4 to 15lbs higher than LTO (9 today) : 25/150 (16.7% SR) for 15pts (+10% ROI)
Horses carrying 10-5 to 10-12 (10-11 here) : 7/41 (17.1% SR) for 31.4pts (+76.5% ROI)
Class 4 races : 10/43 (23.3% SR) for 27.2pts (+62.2% ROI)
Running at same class as LTO : 16/77 (20.8% SR) for 18.6pts (+24.2% ROI)
Up in trip (up 1.5f today) : 17/94 (18.1% SR) for 16pts (+17% ROI)
Ran in the last 25 days (ran 16 days ago) : 21/90 (23.3% SR) for 39.1pts (+43.4% ROI)
Sam T-D in the saddle : 16/93 (17.2% SR) for 20pts (+21.5% ROI)
All the above are profitable angles for Nigel’s LTO winners in chases and you can perm them together to your heart’s content, but it does dramatically reduce the sample size!
That win LTO was a novice chase…
…and since 2008, horses rated 105 to 115 (Bally Braes is 105!) running in handicap chases on the back of a win in a novice chase last time out, have gone on to win 92 of 375 (24.5% SR) for 46.3pts (+12.3% ROI) profit, which is a nice little angle. We could leave it there, but it wouldn’t be be one of my SotD ramblngs if I didn’t drill down to refine/improve the numbers, would it?
So, from that 92/375 stat…
…horses with a maximum of 25 total career runs at all codes/disciplines (BB has run 9 times) have a record reading 87/337 (25.8% SR) for 56.8pts (+16.9% ROI).
From which, those running within 45 days of that last run are 76/273 (27.8% SR) for 64.2pts (+23.5% ROI).
And with a simple 15/2 odds cap imposed, we are left with 74/240 (30.8% SR) for 67.5pts (+28.1% ROI) profit. That’s three logical simple filters that have increased the strike rate by almost 26% and the ROI by 128.4%! And that’s why I run the risk of boring you all with my multi-stat carpet bombing approach!
After a pretty uninspiring 0/6 spell over hurdles, Bally Braes seems to have taken well to chasing. He was second on his chasing bow almost 7 weeks ago at Huntingdon, where he made a couple of jumping errors, including one at the last fence, which might have made the difference between winning and the 1.5 length defeat he suffered. That was over three miles and he was staying on strongly at the end.
Then 16 days, ago he stepped up by half a furlong and tackled soft ground and was a winner by just over three lengths. He had company until 2 out, before staying on strongly again to win, suggesting that today’s extra 300 yards or so will suit him. He did make another couple of mistakes last time out, but his jumping did look to have improved and it would be no surprise to see him come on again today.
So, it’s Bally Braes for me and it’s a 1pt win bet at 17/5 BOG with Betbright with Bet365 the next best at 100/30 BOG . Either of those is more than satisfactory. To see a fuller picture of the market…
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