Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2015

Bally Braes ran out of steam in the mud at Warwick on Thursday, further continuing the massive contrast between last week and this one!

The horses ran in snatches and looked ever so tired when just clambering over the 15th fence and I think the decision to pull him up was the right one. I’m not a fan of emptying a horse out completely just to finish as a well beaten loser.

Friday is my last chance to get a winner on the board this week (Matt is kindly filling in on Saturday for me!), so I’m hoping to have some success in the…

2.00 Lingfield:

Courtesy of an old friend of SotD, Roger Varian, who runs the 4/1 BOG First Dream here today in this Class 6, 7f, A/W handicap.

Roger’s horses are running well…

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…to the extent that recently he is 2/3 in the last week, whilst more long-term his record in handicaps is 119/631 (18.9% SR) for 68.3pts (+10.8% ROI) profit. Whilst in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield, his runners priced at 5/1 or shorter have won 8 of 25 (32% SR) for 4.6pts at an ROI of 18.4%.

Graham Lee is in the saddle…

…and he’s in good touch too. he’s 2/6 in the last week and 5/16 in the past fortnight, whilst in races of 7 or 8 furlongs here at Lingfield, he has 10 winners from the 33 horses ridden and sent off at odds of 8/1 or shorter. This 30.3% strike rate is worth 27pts (+81.2% ROI) level stakes profits.

When Graham rides for Roger, he has a 38.9% strike rate, based on 7 winners from 18 yielding 17pts (+94.4% ROI) profit and if we discard all those sent of at odds higher than 8/1, we finish with a record reading 7/11 (63.6% SR) for 24pts at an ROI of 218.2%!

First Dream makes his handicap debut today…

…for a yard that has a 20% strike rate for handicap debutants via a 34/170 record that has generated 26.2pts (+15.4% ROI) profit.

He also steps up in trip…

…and Roger’s handicap debutants who step up in trip for that debut are 23/97 (23.7% SR) for 38.3pts (+39.5% ROI).

…and down in class…

…When Roger drops horses down 1 grade,t hey have a 24.75% strike rate achieved via 25 wins from 101 runs, producing profits of 39.6pts at an ROI of 39.2%.

And if we put the two together…

…Roger Varian has a 5/14 record with handicap debutants stepping up in trip, but down in class, with the 35.7% strike rate generating 14.8pts profit at an ROI of 105.9%.

After just the three starts to get today’s reasonable mark of 63, there’s not much to tell about First Dream, but he is the brother of a dual Listed winner and could well have too much class for what looks a fairly ordinary line-up of horses with very little in the way of winning form.

You might not think he’s worthy of selection based on form, but stats and breeding suggest he could be useful and as such, I’m happy to place a 1pt win bet on First Dream at 4/1 BOG. I’ve gone with Bet365, but the same price is available with both Paddy Power and the Betfair Sportsbook, as you’ll see when you…

…click here for the latest betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

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Here is today’s racecard.

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