Sat TV Trends: 24th Jan 2015

We’ve got ALL the races covered from Cheltenham this Saturday from a trends angle, while the C4 cameras also take in three races from Doncaster, including the SkyBet Chase.

Cheltenham (RUK/C4)

12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Registered as The Finesse Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f

9/11 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
9/11 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
9/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/11 – Favourites placed
8/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
8/11 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
7/11 – Had won at least once over hurdles in the UK
6/11 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
6/11 – Won their last race
5/11 – Favourites (1 joint)
5/11 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (1 winner, Katchit 2007)
4/11 – Trained by Alan King
4/11 – Ridden by Robert Thornton
3/11 – Won by a German bred horse
3/11 – Won by an Irish bred horse
3/11 – Raced at Cheltenham before
3/11 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
Average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 18/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Evan William is just 2 from 52 with his hurdlers at the track
Don McCain is just 4 from 64 with his hurdlers at the track
Tom George is just 3 from 38 with his hurdlers at the track
Jason Maguire is only 3 from 54 riding hurdlers at the track

1.15 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f

11/11 – Aged 8 or younger
11/11 – Went onto ran at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, La Landiere Cathcart 2003)
10/11 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK before
9/11 – Returned 13/2 or shorter
9/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Placed either 1st or 2nd last time out
8/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
8/11 – Won over at least 2 1/2f (fences) in the UK previously
8/11 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
7/11 – Rated 128 or higher
6/11 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
5/11 – French bred
5/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/11 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/11 – Raced at Kempton last time out
2/11 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/11 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Neil Mulholland has a 43% record with his chasers at the track
Tom George is just 1 from 29 with his chasers at the track
Venetia Williams is just 4 from 80 with her chasers at the track

1.50 – BetBright Cup Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y CH4

11/11 – Officially rated 151 or higher
10/11 – Raced at Cheltenham over fences before (7 had won)
10/11 – Raced over at least 3m (fences)
10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
9/11 – Raced at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (3) or Kempton (3) last time
8/11 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
8/11 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Returned 6/1 or less
7/11 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
5/11 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/11 – Unplaced in their last race
4/11 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/11 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/11 – Ridden by AP McCoy
0/11 – Favourites that won
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9.5/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
David Bridgewater has a 20% record with is chasers at the track
Nigel Twiston-Davies has just an 8% record with his chasers at the track

2.25 – freebets.com Trophy Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f CH4

11/11 – Finised in the top 4 last time out
11/11 – Won over at least 2m5f (fences) before
10/11 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Won between 1-4 times over fences before
9/11 – Aged 8 or older
9/11 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
9/11 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
8/11 – Run over fences at Cheltenham before (5 won)
7/11 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
7/11 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
6/11 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
4/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Raced at Newbury last time out
3/11 – Favourites
2/11 – Won by the Pipe stable
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2

Trainer/Jockey Stats:

Nigel Twiston-Davies has just an 8% record with his chasers at the track
Tom George is just 1 from 29 with his chasers at the track
Venetia Williams is just 4 from 80 with her chasers at the track
Lucinda Russell is o from 21 with her chasers here
Wayne Hutchinson is just 1 from 30 riding over fences here

3.00 – Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered The Classic Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y C4

9/9 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
8/9 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Placed favourites
7/9 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
7/9 – From the top 3 in the market
7/9 – Won last time out
7/9 – Won 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/9 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
7/9 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
6/9 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
6/9 – Ran at Cheltenham before
6/9 – Priced 7/2 or less in the betting
3/9 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
3/9 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/9 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/9 – Favourites
2/9 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/9 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
Average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Alan King is just 7 from 97 with his hurdlers here
Colin Tizzard is only 2 from 39 with his hurdlers here
Evan Williams is just 2 from 52 with his hurdlers here
Charlie Longsdon is only 1 from 42 with his hurdlers here
Tom O’Brien is just 3 from 37 riding over fences here

3.35 – galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m CH4

9/10 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
9/10 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles before
9/10 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
8/10 – Winners that later ran in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle (3 won)
8/10 – Ran Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
7/10 – Officially rated 155 or higher
7/10 – Finished in the top 4 in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
7/10 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/10 – Placed either 1st or 2nd last time out
6/10 – Placed Favourites
5/10 – From the top 3 in the market
5/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Favourites
4/10 – Won by a French-bred horse
2/10 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
2/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
Average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 12.7/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Rebecca Curtis is just 3 from 43 with her hurdlers at the track
Daryl Jacob is only 6 from 74 when riding over hurdles here

4.10 – Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) RUK Soft 2m1f

10/10 – Officially Rated 121 or higher
9/10 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Ran within the last 9 weeks
8/10 – Raced at Cheltenham before
8/10 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
7/10 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/10 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/10 – Favourites unplaced
4/10 – French bred
3/10 – Favourites
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/10 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/10 – Won their last race
The winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 5/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Don McCain is just 4 from 64 with his hurdlers at the track
Tom George is just 3 from 38 with his hurdlers at the track
Colin Tizzard is just 2 from 39 with his hurdlers here
Jason Maguire is only 3 from 54 riding over hurdles here
Brendan Powell is just 0 from 26 riding over hurdles here

Doncaster (RUK/C4)

2.05 – OLBG.com Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y CH4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Won over this trip in the past
5/5 – Aged 8 or younger
4/5 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
4/5 – Went onto run in the Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
3/5 – Won between 1-3 times
3/5 – Irish bred
3/5 – Won their last race
2/5 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 8.7/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Neil Mulholland has a 33% record with his hurdlers at the track
David Pipe is 0 from 14 with his hurdlers at the track
Noel Fehily has a 21% record riding over hurdles at the track

2.40 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y CH4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK
5/5 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
5/5 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less4/5 – Favourites placed
4/5 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
4/5 – From the top 3 in the betting
3/5 – Won their last race
2/5 – Ran at Doncaster before
2/5 – Irish bred
2/5 – Favourites
No real age trend with 5,6,7 & 8 year-olds all winning

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Nicky Henderson has a 35% record with his hurdlers at the track
Nicky Henderson has a +£37 level stakes profit with his hurdlers at the course
Don McCain is just 4 from 47 with his hurdlers at the track

3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m

9/9 – Won between 0-3 times over fences
8/9 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
8/9 – Aged 9 or younger
7/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Won over at least 3m (fences)
6/9 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
6/9 – Unplaced favourites
6/9 – Officially rated 130 or higher
6/9 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Priced 7/1 or shorter
5/9 – From the top 3 in the betting market
5/9 – Irish bred winners
4/9 – Ran at Cheltenham last time
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/9 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/9 – Ridden by Andrew Thornton
1/9 – Favourites
1/9 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 10/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell
Other Stats:
4 of the last 9 winners  went onto run in the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
4 of the last 9 winners ran later in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Keith Reveley has a 21% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 27% record with his chasers at the track
Alan King has just a 4% record with his chasers at the track
James Reveley has a 24% record riding over fences here
Nick Schofield has a 27% record riding over fences here
Liam Treadwell has a 27% record riding over fences here

Get Matt’s full Cheltenham TV Preview here

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“Little Boy Boru – Six pounds out of the handicap and may find this track a bit sharp. However, thoroughly genuine and has plenty of stamina and has a small each way squeak at 9st 9lb if ground is testing. More rain will help as ground probably very holding now.”
Suzy Smith 10/01/15 2nd 25/1

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