Stat of the Day, 24th January 2015
A non-runner on Friday, so no damage done, but no fun had either. Chris is having a rare weekend off, so it’s Matt in the chair today. I’m staying on the Surrey beaches, and specifically the…
They’re so hot right now. So hot. I am of course referring to the boys in blue, Charlie Appleby and Adam Kirby.
When combining in the last 30 days, they’ve won nine of the seventeen races they’ve entered – a ridiculous 53% win rate – and that’s been worth a profit of 10.04 units.
Interestingly, of Appleby’s five runners at the Surrey track, this is the only one Kirby rides, with three jockeys sharing the other four rides.
The horse in question is True Course, who is bidding for a hat-trick on this step up to six furlongs. His previous two wins were both over the minimum and both in Class 6, so this is a furlong further and a grade higher. The mitigation is that with the Dubawi filly’s hold up run style, she’s always been produced late, meaning
a. she ought to stay the extra distance fine, and should improve for it, and
b. she is probably still ahead of the handicapper, because she keeps getting on top late in the play
If that’s right then the 11/4 available in a couple of places is too big against mainly limited looking opposition. It also means that her draw in ten is not as bad as it might have been if she’d wanted to lead for instance. From there, Kirby should be able to drop her in and pounce in the straight, as he has done the last twice.
The combination of horse, trainer and jockey form is irresistible to me, and it’s a one point win bet at 11/4 BOG with William Hill and BetVictor. Do make sure to…
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