Double Dutch, 26th January 2015
Double Dutch
Double Dutch, 26th January 2015
Once again, on Saturday, the boss showed he’s the man when it comes to Cheltenham, picking out a sparkling 27/1 double with the added bonus of a 15/1 exacta to boot.
Pre-race favourite Easter Day was travelling well in our first race before falling three out, but thankfully Annacotty stayed on strongly to grab the initiative late on to score by three parts of a length, giving us a handsome 6/1 winner to take to race 2…
…which Matt correctly identified as being one that Saphir du Rheu should win (and he did!) and that Reve di Sivola was a value pick at up to 6/1 in his preferred muddy conditions. The outcome was a 1-2 finish with Saphir’s drift out to 3/1 providing a welcome boost to the bottom line.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Annacotty: won at 5/1 (adv 6/1)
Easter Day: fell at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
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Saphir Du Rheu : Won at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Reve De Sivola: 2nd at 4/1 (adv 11/2)
The Exacta paid £16.00 here.
Results to date:
469 winning selections from 1644 = 28.53%
146 winning bets in 426 days = 34.27%
Stakes: 851.50pts
Returns: 935.61pts
P/L : +84.11pts (+9.88% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
From the riches of Cheltenham Festival Trials Day to a dull January Monday, the contrasts are stark, but just like Saturday’s excellent racing, each of today’s contests will have a winner, so let’s find some!
I think that Ebony Empress deserves another chance, despite flopping on her handicap bow at Fontwell last time out. She had shown plenty of promise prior to that run, having finished 323 in three bumpers last winter, before getting within 6 lengths of the winner in a Listed Bumper at Aintree up against some decent types and plenty of future winners.
She continued to show promise in three novice hurdle races, finishing 531 before that handicap debut at Fontwell. AP McCoy is back in the saddle today, boasting a 1/1 record on her and with neither the trip nor the conditions looking too problematic, there’s every possibility Ebony Empress will bounce back to form with a win at 11/4 BOG.
The one I fear most here is the 9/2 BOG Annaluna, who also needs to bounce back from a disappointing effort at Fontwell last time out. I think that 2m 6.5f was a stretch for her on soft ground and the drop back to 2m5f on a track where she is a former course and distance winner (just 4 starts ago) will play more to her strengths.
Her yard is going well at the moment and jockey Declan Bates will claim a useful 3lbs to help him continue a fine string of results aboard this horse. He has two wins from seven aboard Annaluna in a run reading 4123123 and will seek to add another “1” to the sequence here.
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As many of you know, I’m an avid collector of obscure stats and use them to help frame the odd bet here and there. So, I tend to write lots of little snippets down and something I read a while ago was that on a Monday at Wolverhampton when the racing is invariably poor, you could do worse than follow David Evans’ runners.
So, I looked it up via the excellent Horseracebase database and I found that since 2008, his runners here on Mondays over trips of less than 9f had won 42 of 270 races (15.6% SR) for 117.7pts (+43.6% ROI) profit and his runner Al’s Memory could well be another one for the list at 9/2 BOG. He was a winner at Lingfield last time out and with the yard in fine form, can’t be discounted here, despite not having a great record at this venue.
The one he’ll need to beat for me, however, is Mick Appleby’s 3/1 BOG Mop’s Angel. Mick’s horses are flying at present (18 winners from 74 in the last month) and this is his only runner of the day, so he’ll want to see a return from this one. She was a winner here at Wolverhampton last time out, so we know she “gets” the surface and was staying on late over 6f to just take the lead late on, getting home by a neck.
The way she finished that race suggests that a step up to today’s 7f should be ideal for her and with Luke Morris doing the steering once again, Mop’s Angel looks a very good option at 3/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Ebony Empress / Mop’s Angel @ 15/1 (3/1 & 3/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Ebony Empress / Al’s Memory @ 19.63/1 (11/4 & 9/2 : generally)
Annaluna / Mop’s Angel @ 21/1 (9/2 & 3/1 : generally)
Annaluna / Al’s Memory @ 29.25/1 (9/2 & 9/2 : generally)
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