Double Dutch, 27th January 2015
Al’s Memory failed to over haul a shock 12/1 winner at Wolverhampton on Monday, going down by three parts of a length, despite staying on strongly towards the finish.
This, unfortunately, meant we were denied a great start to the week, courtesy of a 19.63/1 double, originally made possible by Ebony Empresses return to form with a win at Ludlow, as we thought she might.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Ebony Empress : won at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Annaluna : fell at 7/2 (adv 9/2)
Al’s Memory : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 9/2)
Mop’s Angel : 5th at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
470 winning selections from 1648 = 28.52%
146 winning bets in 427 days = 34.19%
P/L : +82.11pts (+9.62% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
And if you thought Monday’s racing was poor, you’re probably not going to be impressed with the quality of Tuesday’s meeting, but as always, our show goes on! These are my chosen races today…
On a racecard bereft of much solid form or performances, Aroseforoscar stands out like a sore thumb after her win at Exeter last week, when she fairly strolled home by 14 lengths. The fact of the matter is likely to be that the Exeter race turns out to be a poor one but I don’t think it’s any worse (if at all!) than this one today. Yes, of course, she’s up 7lbs for the win, but truth be told, she could have won by as far as she wanted to that day.
If the same Aroseforoscar turns up today in the same form, then I don’t see anything but another win for her, but we’re only looking at 2/1 BOG here, rather than the splendid 15/2 last time around. Mind you a 2/1 winner would be a good start to a double!
And with fairly serious doubts about most of her rivals, I’m going to go with the 8/1 BOG Unefille de Guye, who was in a decent run of form earlier in the winter, even if she did disappoint last time out, when well beaten at Exeter. There is the suggestion that the race was one step too far for her, being her fifth effort in six weeks, but prior to that failure she had finished 231 in her previous three runs.
The “3” came when she was five lengths ahead of Aroseforoscar and she meets the favourite again some 6lbs better off with all jockey claims considered. This swing in the weights and a near 6-week rest make Unefille de Guye an attractive backup at a decent price. She could very well be worth a small E/W single too.
Eium Mac is 3122 in the four races he has contested since a switch to the fibresand here at Southwell and for a horse narrowly beaten when caught late on in his last two outings, both over a mile, the drop back to 7f should be the catalyst for a return to the winners’ enclosure. he’s also the only previous course winner on show here and holds the best recent form, making him the best option here at 2/1 BOG.
The rival I’m most interested in is Risk n Reward, a 5/2 BOG chance on his debut for David O’Meara, He was third and then second in his final two runs of last summer and having switched yards since, could go one better today. Jockey Danny Tudhope has a near 20% strike rate here over the last three years and trainer David O’Meara is renowned for getting a bit more improvement from his imports from other yards.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Aroseforoscar / Eium Mac @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Bet365 & SkyBet)
Aroseforoscar / Risk n Reward @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Bet365 & Hills)
Unefille de Guye / Eium Mac @ 26/1 (8/1 & 2/1 : Skybet & Paddy Power)
Unefille de Guye / Risk n Reward @ 28.75/1 (15/2 & 5/2 : Bet365)