SotD, 26th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th January 2015

No joy on Saturday, I’m afraid, in what was a pretty amazing race at Lingfield to close the meeting. The handicapper was the real winner and he will have had a wry smile on his face at the end of this 6f handicap.

And the reason why? Well, our runner True Course came home last of the 10 runners, but was only beaten by two lengths in a blanket finish. We can’t say he ran poorly, but we can say he didn’t finish as strongly as we’d have liked.

Either way, it was a disappointing end to a disappointing week for SotD, more about which you’ll see in my weekly update (which is here). But we start afresh with a new week and a runner in the…

3.30 Plumpton:

Where Alex Dunn’s Zero Visibility is a best priced 9/4 BOG to land a second win inside four days and a third win in four handicap hurdles. He was a comfortable winner on Thursday at this trip and class and although penalised for that win, the signs are good for a repeat victory…

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He’s a quick returner…

Since 2009, UK NH Handicap Hurdlers who ran 4 or 5 days ago in a handicap event and had also had at least one other run in the previous 8 weeks (ie race fit, but not over cooked) went on to win 53 of 195 (27.2% SR) races for 171.1pts profit at an ROI of 87.7%.

Of those 195 runners above, those sent off at 7/2 or shorter and who were actually winners 4/5 days ago, won again in 17 of 30 (56.7% SR) races for 15.6pts (+52% ROI) in the last 5 years.

Alex Dunn’s horses go well when not considered outsiders…

Basically, if you backed each of the Dunn runners who were sent off at 10/1 or shorter, you’d had 18 winning bets from 82 (22% SR) and made yourself 25.8pts profit (+31.5% ROI) from 1pt level stakes bets.

In handicaps the figures are 12/55 (21.8% SR) for 32pts (+58.1% ROI) and over hurdles it’s 10/42 (23.8% SR) for 28.8pts (+68.6% ROI).

And Alex Dunn’s record with her handicap hurdlers priced at 10/1 or below reads 8/30 (26.7% SR) for 29pts (+96.7% ROI) profit and at odds of 4/1 or shorter, there are 4 winners from 11 (36.4% SR) for 6.3pts (+56.9% ROI)

Zero Visibility was an easy winner LTO (4.5 lengths whilst being eased down)…

Since 2008, handicap hurdlers aged 7-11 who weren’t too exposed (5-10 career runs running within 25 days of a handicap hurdle win by four lengths or more, won again on 47/153 occasions, with the resultant 30.7% strike rate generating 36.3pts profit at an ROI of 23.7%, whilst those runners priced at 13/2 or shorter performed best, winning 47 of 123 (38.2% SR) for 66.3pts (+53.9% ROI) profit.

Zero Visibility has already won over today’s trip and he’s already won on both soft and heavy ground. He’s 2/3 in handicap hurdles races and 2/3 at odds of 4/1 or shorter and has won 2 of his last three class 5 contests. He’s got his usual jockey on boards and with optimal conditions here, I fancy him to defy the penalty and win again.

So, for me, it’s a 1pt win bet on Zero Visibility at 9/4 BOG with BetVictor. You can get the same price at Bet365 and for a fuller market overview, simply…

…click here for the latest betting on the 3.30 Plumpton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

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Here is today’s racecard.

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