Stat of the Day, 27th January 2015
Zero Visibility certainly ran his race yesterday, but was definitely second best to the winner. I’m not convinced he was 13 lengths worse than the winner, after he was eased down once beaten and only made to do enough to hold on for a comfortable runner-up berth at our advised 9/4.
He ran really well until headed 2 from home, when he found very little for pressure and I was actually happy to see him eased down later on. There was no point in driving him to a three of four length defeat, when 2nd place wasn’t in danger and he wasn’t going to catch the winner.
It was, in my opinion anyway, a very sensible piece of handling in defeat. But a defeat it was, and so to break this current cold spell, we’re setting our sights on Tuesday’s…
Where, on a fairly bleak day of racing, Philip Hobbs’ Milosam looks our best bet at 9/4 BOG.
Tuesday does look fairly bereft of meaningful, workable stats but both trainer and horse have good records here at Taunton and there’s just about enough juice in the price to keep me interested.
Firstly, Philip Hobbs has a 19.3% strike rate (34 winners from 176) here at this track since 2009, and although only 32 of those races were over fences, 12 chase winners represents a very healthy 37.5% strike rate which has yielded 17.3pts profit at an ROI of 53.9%.
In handicap chases, Mr Hobbs is 8/22 (36.4% SR) for 20.5pts (+93.2% ROI) and more in line wit today’s bet, those sent off at odds of 7/2 or shorter have won 6 of 13 (46.2% SR) for 5.45pts (+42% ROI) profit.
And his horse…
…Milosam, has won 4 of his 18 starts to date, which isn’t bad in fairness, but a 4/18 career record becomes 4/12 over fences and if that wasn’t good enough, he’s 4/6 at Taunton over fences, all over today’s course and distance in a string of results reading 111212, making him generally the one to beat around these parts.
He has won 4 of 9 races when at the head of the market and in races of 8 or fewer runners, he has won four of eight contests.
Milosam is clearly a track specialist and although he’s up in weight from his last win here, this race should be his to win/lose, as all the rivals have question marks above them.
We’re not breaking the bank here, but we’re getting a fair price from a 1pt win bet on Milosam at 9/4 BOG with Hills. Boylesports also go 9/4, as you can see if you…
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