Stat of the Day, 28th January 2015
Milosam attracted money all day and was eventually sent off as the 7/4 favourite (adv 9/4) at Taunton on Tuesday afternoon and he travelled well throughout the race, before a mistake 5 fences from home brought him crashing to the ground.
He had looked well set to extend his fantastic record over course and distance, before a first ever fall and thankfully with both horse and jockey safe and sound after the race, only our bottom line was dented!
We do, of course, get an instant chance to regain the loss with a runner in Wednesday’s…
Where Noel Fehily rides the 5/2 BOG St. John’s Point for Charlie Longsdon and is a horse i wanted to back last week before Huntingdon fell foul of the weather.
…Charlie Longsdon isn’t exactly a frequent visitor to these parts, which is a shame, as he has enjoyed some success with his runners here in recent years. He has a record of seven winners from twenty-seven runners over the last four years on this track with the subsequent 25.9% strike rate generating 13.1pts profit at an ROI of 48.5% and with those runners priced below 7/2, as I expect this one to be, his record is 5/7 (71.4% SR) for 8.64pts (+123.4% ROI).
And his chosen jockey…
…Noel Fehily has won 106 times of his 535 rides for Mr Longsdon over the last three years and whilst that 19.8% strike rate actually produces a small loss of 4.2pts at Betfair SP, there’s probably a modest profit to be had at BOG prices. However, we can dig down and find a profitable part of the combo quite easily.
Noel is 58/297 (19.5% SR) on Charlie’s hurdlers and this has realised 31.1pts profit at an ROI of 10.5%, which is clearly a step in the right direction and in handicap hurdles contests,the figures improve to 24/135 (17.8% SR) for 58.2pts (+43.1% ROI).
Handicap hurdlers priced above 6/4, but below 11/2 have a 17/47 (36.2% SR) record producing level stakes profits of 31.4pts (+66.7% ROI)
This horse was a winner LTO, almost six weeks ago…
…when winning fairly comfortably by 3.5 lengths in a novice hurdle to achieve today’s mark of 115.
Since 2008, handicap hurdlers who won a novice hurdle last time out and ran again 16-45 days later are 132/660 (20% SR) for 141.1pts profit (+21.4% ROI) when sent off in the 6/4 to 9/1 odds range, whilst those same horses rated from 103 to 123 are 85/370 (23% SR) for 149.7pts (+40.6% ROI).
The nature of the Leicester track is similar to that at Towcester, where he won last time out on his first attempt at a right handed track and the cheekpiece/tongue tie combination used to such good effect last time is also in place again here. At a half furlong shorter than that last run, the trip is no worry to him, nor should the heavy ground be, as he stayed 3m at Uttoxeter on heavy ground.
So, with the above in mind, it’s a 1pt win bet on St. John’s Point at 5/2 BOG with Boylesports for me. 9/4 seems to be the norm, as is shown when you…
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