Double Dutch, 28th January 2015
Tuesday proved to be another of those annoyingly frustrating days where our double was around the length of a horse away from success.
The 2/1 favourite Arosefromoscar stayed on strongly on the run-in for an exciting finish, where just a length and a short head separated the first three home after 24.5 furlongs on soft ground in another good race for the handicappers.
Unfortunately, our pick was the last, rather than the first of the three, meaning our day was over pretty shortly after it began, with our second pick Unefille de Guye a further 3.5 lengths back in 4th place.
This rendered the Southwell finale largely irrelevant to us, but it was still nice to grab a winner in the shape of the well backed Risk n Reward who fairly hosed up in the end, scoring pretty comfortably by three lengths.
My personal fancy for the race, Eium Mac ran a bit of a stinker, if truth be told and it’s probably an indictment of the low quality of the race that he still managed to finish 4th of the 9 runners, beaten by just over 5 lengths and relinquishing his previous record of making the frame in every race at Southwell (4/4 before this race)
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Aroseforoscar : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Unefille de Guye : 4th at 7/1 (adv 8/1)
Risk n Reward : won at 13/8 (adv 5/2)
Eium Mac : 4th at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
471 winning selections from 1652 = 28.51%
146 winning bets in 428 days = 34.11%
P/L : +80.11pts (+9.36% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I was rather hoping to be kicking on towards that 90pt profit mark this week, so I’m looking to recoup recent losses via these 2 races…
In a race that looks to be between the three at the top end of the market, I’m going to take the two with best recent form and run with those.
Charlie Longsdon’s chasers are 7/15 here at Leicester over the last four years and Azure Fly has made a very good start to life over fences finishing 13421 in his five efforts to date. He was a very comfortable winner by 10 lengths last time out, having made all and could probably have won by much further.
He’s up in trip by a furlong today, but he has stayed further than this on five previous occasions, including a soft ground encounter two starts ago at Bangor. Azure Fly probably won’t want it much softer than it already is and this probably explains the current price of 9/2 BOG with Coral.
The one to beat, I feel, though is likely to be Algernon Pazham, representing Team Twiston-Davies, assuming of course he takes to the fences as well as has done to hurdles. His form over hurdles has been brilliant (21221) and should have no fears about trip or ground conditions, having won over 3m1f on soft ground last time out.
The yard has a good record with handicap debutants and it is felt that his current mark of 124 might just be underestimating Algernon Pazham somewhat and he could very well take this at 9/2 BOG with Boylesports.
Provided I’ve got us safely through leg 1, this should (on paper, at least) be an easier one to decipher. My initial thoughts were to go with Drive On at 7/2 BOG with Skybet & Hills. He’s 3/5 over 7f and 2/4 over course and distance, including a win last time out a fortnight ago. Useful 7lb claimer Aaron Jones was in the saddle that day, as he is again today.
Drive On is trained by Eve Johnson Houghton, whose record in A/W handicaps here at Kempton over the last three years is 14/51 (27.5% SR) for 59.7pts (+117% ROI) with runners priced at 8/1 or shorter. The team will fancy their chances again, especially as a 3lb rise looks quite fair from that last run.
The one likeliest to stop Drive On from winning is Pretty Bubbles, who was a course and distance winner here three starts ago off a mark just 2lbs lower than today and when he had several subsequent winners & placers behind him. He had two creditable efforts at Southwell since that win, finishing third on both occasions and not beaten by far.
Pretty Bubbles is 3/7 here at Kempton, having scored in three of his last four starts here and I can’t help but feel that the 9/2 BOG generally available might look a tad generous come tea-time.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Azure Fly / Drive On @ 21.50/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : Boylesports, SkyBet & Hills)
Azure Fly / Pretty Bubbles @ 29.25/1 (9/2 & 9/2 : Betbright & Coral)
Algernon Pazham / Drive On @ 23.75/1 (9/2 & 7/2 : Boylesports)
Algernon Pazham / Pretty Bubbles @ 29.25/1 (9/2 & 9/2 : Boylesports)