Stat of the Day, 29th January 2015
St. John’s Point was the latest loser in what has turned into a rather disappointing end to a month that promised so much with all those early winners. We are, of course, still guaranteed a decent profit from the month, but I did rather want to kick off the year in style.
As for SJP on Wednesday, he was going well enough and led until 3 out, at which point he took on the appearance of a car that had stalled at the lights, fading right out of contention very quickly.
To his and jockey Noel Fehily’s credit, they persevered, but by the time the race was over, they were back in 5th place of the six runners, the best part of 80 lengths adrift.
Like Noel & SJP, I seem to be running on fumes a little bit, but I’ve still 3 chances left to boost the January P/L, starting with Thursday’s…
And what looks to me, a rather generous 9/2 BOG about LTO C&D winner Blue Buttons,
…Harry Fry is in imperious form, clocking up 8 winners from 18 (44.4% SR) for 15.9pts (+88.1% ROI) profit in the last month alone. Harry’s a relative newcomer to the sport as a trainer in his own right and most of you know he’s been very successful very quickly.
For those of you not sure how well he has done so far, here are some numbers! His career record stands at 84 winners from 292 runners, a brilliant 28.8% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 177.3pts, meaning you make almost 61p in the pound from every single bet and his hurdlers are 43/166 (25.9% SR) for 20.7pts at an ROI of 12.5%.
Here at Wincanton he has had 14 winners from 50 (28% SR) for 29.6pts (+59.2% ROI) profit with his hurdlers claiming 8 wins from 30 (26.7% SR) and profits of 24.3pts at an ROI of 80.9%.
Harry’s definitely one to follow, especially at early BOG prices.
His chosen jockey today…
…is the 7lb claimer Garry Derwin, who has already ridden five winners for harry fry from just 10 attempts with that 50% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 83.8pts at an ROI of 838% (there’s obviously a big winner in there!).
When Garry has been using his 7lb claim, he’s 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 82.5pts (+916.7% ROI) and he’s 3/4 here at Wincanton for 9.1pts (+226.5% ROI), whilst his hurdling record for Mr fry is 3/5 for 7.6pts (+152% ROI).
Garry is 2/2 here at Wincanton in handicap hurdles on the Fry horses, including 1 course and distance win aboard today’s runner Blue Buttons almost 4 weeks ago on heavy ground. We’ve got soft ground at present, but more rain is due and it won’t be getting any firmer!
This horse has a fine set of supplementary stats too…
…including having one win and one runner-up finish here at Wincanton, with the win being the course and distance run 26 days ago when beating the re-opposing Earthmoves by six lengths.
He’s 1/2 on soft ground and has 2 wins and a place from 6 efforts on soft or worse.
He’s 3/6 over 2m3f/2m4f and also 3/6 at Class 3/4 level.
He’s 1/1 when ridden by Garry Derwin and all three career wins have come when running 25 to 40 days after his last effort.
He’s 3/8 in races of 9 to 14 runners and all his 3 wins to date have been over hurdles here in the South West of England.
So, in Class 3/4 hurdle races in the South West over 2m3f to 2m4f in fields of 9 to 14 runners on right handed tracks, running within 25 to 40 of his last run, Blue Buttons boasts an impeccable 3/3 record!
And that’s why I think 9/2 BOG looks generous. But that’s what the bookies (well, some of them!) are offering (in fact Ladbrokes are at 5/1, but that’s non-BOG until 9.00am) and so, my play is a 1pt win bet on Blue Buttons at 9/2 BOG with Bet365. Other bookies are, of course, available and at least five of them are offering these same odds.
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