Double Dutch, 29th January 2015
There was a bit of discomfort on Wednesday morning, when Azure Fly was pulled from his race at Leicester as this not only took half our runners from that race, it also reduced the odds of our remaining selection, Algernon Pazham, by 15% down to 3.825/1, but we needn’t have worried too much.
He stayed on well and kicked clear from the last fence to score by 7 lengths at 3/1. This meant that we’d got 2.41pts riding on the second halves of the double, plus two 0.5pt singles, due to Azure Fly’s defection.
As it was, the 9/2 advised Pretty Bubbles prevailed in a tight race (2 necks separated 1st and 3rd, with 4th a further neck away!) and was also returned at 3/1. All of which resulted in a winning single at 9/2 and a successful double at just over 25.5/1 for a total daily profit of 16.02pts.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Algernon Pazham : WON at 3/1 (adv 9/2, but 3.83/1 after R4)
Azure Fly : non-runner (adv 9/2)
Risk n Reward : WON at 3/1 (adv 9/2)
Drive On : 3rd at 9/2 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
473 winning selections from 1655 = 28.58%
147 winning bets in 429 days = 34.27%
P/L : +94.13pts (+10.98% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Having now broken the 90pts barrier I aimed for at the start of the week, the magical “ton” is in sight and could well be broken via these selections on Thursday…
Poppy Bond looks very dangerous here at the bottom of the weights and is accordingly priced up as the 7/2 BOG favourite to take this. This five year old had made the frame in 8 of his last 11 starts, winning on three occasions (121 here at Southwell in that run). he was only beaten by three parts of a length last time out and that was here a week ago over a mile.
He was headed late on that day with the third placed horse a good 5 lengths further back and it is anticipated he’d prefer the drop back to today’s 7 furlongs, where he is already a course and distance winner.
It should, however, be noted, that the best horse doesn’t always win these types of races, and it’s often a case of backing the better jockey in an apprentice handicap, which leads me to Ali Rawlinson aboard an old friend of Geegeez, Khajaaly.
Khajaaly does, of course, have a better record at Wolverhampton, but has won here over course and distance in the past. He is now trained by Mick Appleby who has a great record in winter handicaps here at Southwell and Ali Rawlinson has a terrific set of results on the Appleby horses.
Khajaaly looks to be good value at 7/1 BOG here today and if trainer / jockey stats settle this one, he’ll be in the mix, although form/class should see Poppy Bond prevail.
Rich Again has been an absolute revelation of late and has rapidly become one of the stars on Wolverhampton’s new Tapeta surface. Prior to his debut on the new track in October, he had won 2 of his 22 races, but with a form line of 133111 in his last six outings, he is flying. He’s now got a record reading 13111 on the tapeta and is 1/1 over course and distance.
He’s up 5lbs today, but I’m not convinced the assessor has him just yet and with Ted Durcan in the saddle (1311 on him), he looks well set to win again at 2/1 BOG, especially when you consider his jockey’s near-20% strike rate at this track.
I’m not entirely sure what to take as a backup, as I’m hoping not to need one, but Invincible Ridge could offer some value at 9/1 BOG (Hills). He’s got a 1212 record here at Wolverhampton, has won twice over today’s trip and has also won at a higher grade than this contest and wasn’t disgraced two grades higher last time out. He’s a tentative selection, of course, but could well be worth an E/W single too!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Poppy Bond / Rich Again @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : BetVictor, Coral, Hills & Betfair SB)
Poppy Bond / Invincible Ridge @ 44/1 (7/2 & 9/1 : BetVictor & Hills)
Khajaaly / Rich Again @ 23/1 (7/1 & 2/1 : SkyBet & Hills)
Khajaaly / Invincible Ridge @ 79/1 (7/1 & 9/1 : Hills)