Stat of the Day, 30th January 2015
Stat of the Day
Stat of the Day, 30th January 2015
Like all of you reading this, I’m as perplexed as you can imagine by the sudden crop of runners falling short for us. For the second time in two days, we had one that looked to be travelling well that suddenly just emptied out and went backwards.
Everything pointed to a bold run from Blue Buttons, but we just didn’t get a finish from him, as he folded tamely from 3 out, eventually finishing 4th at 3/1, beaten by 15 lengths.
Despite the recent cold run, I’d probably pick the same horses again, as they’ve been pretty straightforward logical choices with seemingly little left to chance. Perhaps a different tack is needed in Friday’s…
Where I’ve just placed a 7/2 BOG on what might seem a bit of a left field punt on Lucy Parsons, a lightly raced (just two starts) 4yr old filly who has been off the track for days shy of 18 months. You’re probably thinking I’ve lost the plot, but I assure you this isn’t the case. Assuming she runs well after a lengthy break, there are some other stats to back the selection of a horse…
trained by David Barron…
…who has an excellent record here at Wolverhampton over the last 8 years, saddling up 42 winners from 192 runners and producing level stakes profits of 97.2pts at an ROI of 50.6% and in handicaps here at Dunstall Park, David’s runners are 30/137 (21.9% SR) for 85.5pts (+62.4% ROI).
David is the sprint king…
…it’s fairly well known that David has a good record with sprinters, especially over 5 furlongs. Since 2008, his runners at today’s minimum trip have won 60 of 272 (22.1% SR) races, generating 235pts profit at an ROI of 86.7%. On the A/W those numbers are 26/111 (23.4% SR) for 59.3pts (+53.4% ROI), whilst here at Wolverhampton, his 5f runners priced at 6/1 or shorter are 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 15.2pts (+72.6% ROI)
Graham Gibbons takes the ride this evening…
…and he’s certainly no stranger to Wolverhampton or its winners’ enclosure either. Since 2008, he’s actually ridden here 1014 times and had you staked £10 on each of those runners, not only would you have been on 130 (12.8% SR) winners, you’d have made yourself just shy of £3,000 profit at an ROI of 29.5%.
If you’d stuck to handicaps only, you’d be looking at 96 winners from 747 (12.9% SR) and profits of almost £2350 (+31.4% ROI).
…he also rides David’s horses well…
Since the start of 2010, Graham has ridden 133 winners for the yard from just 735 attempts with the resultant/excellent 18.1% strike rate generating some 308.9pts profits from 1 pt level stakes at an ROI of 42% and in handicap contests, the record for the combo is 82/502 (16.3% SR) for 169.5pts (+33.8% ROI).
Here at Wolverhampton, Graham has a 19/70 (27.1% SR) record on the Barron horses and these runners have produced 82.3pts (+117.6% ROI) profit with the handicappers winning 14 of 50 (28% SR) races here, making 65.8pts (+131.6% ROI) in the process.
The Gibbons/Barron combo with sprint (5/6f) handicappers have won 6 of 26 (27.3% SR) for 53.1pts (+241.5% ROI).
Both Lucy Parsons’ two runs to date have been over today’s minimum trip, finishing 4th (but only beaten by two lengths) on debut at Ripon, before following up with a win by 2.5 lengths at nearby Thirsk a fortnight later. She beat quite a few subsequent winners in her brief racing career to date, but has been “in the shed” ever since.
She’s taking a drop in class in what looks a poor race, if truth be told and although we’re having to take her fitness on trust, I dare say she’s been well prepared by David Barron during her absence and she’ll benefit from being drawn in stall 1. The way she ran her two prior starts leaves me to think she might try to blast out and win the race from the front and if she can hold on, the adrenaline rush might just carry Lucy Parsons home.
She’s not the obvious one to back here, but in a weak race full of runners with questions to answer, I’m happy to take 7/2 BOG about Lucy Parsons. I’ve gone with Bet365, purely because I had a free bet from them that needed using, but the same prices is available in a stack of other places, so you’d be advised to…
…click here for the latest betting on the 7.15 Wolverhampton
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