Double Dutch, 31st January 2015
Friday tea-time was very enjoyable indeed as we scooped two winners within 50 minutes for a nice 12.5/1 double with the added bonus of an 11.2/1 forecast in race 2.
We kicked off at Wolverhampton, where Hanalei Bay looked like defying a drift from 3/1 to 7/1 as he led inside the final furlong. He was unfortunately swamped late on and eventually came home 4th, beaten by 3.5 lengths.
The good news, however, was that Monsieur Chevalier finished fastest of all to score by three parts of a length at 11/8 (in from our 2/1 advised odds)
This set us up nicely for the trip to Dundalk, where I’d said there’d be little between 5/2 favourite Togoville and the 100/30 Indian Landing and so it proved. The prices didn’t move by much, the fav shortened by one click, which was offset by the one-click drift of his rival.
As it was Indian Landing prevailed, beating Togoville by half a length at 7/2, securing both a 12.5/1 double and an 11/2/1 forecast, making my evening a very pleasant one indeed.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Monsieur Chevalier : WON at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Hanalei Bay : 4th at 7/1(adv 3/1)
Indian Landing : WON at 7/2 (adv 10/3)
Togoville : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
476 winning selections from 1663 = 28.62%
148 winning bets in 431 days = 34.34%
P/L : +96.88pts (+11.25% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
We’re edging ever closer to the 100pt mark and whilst Saturdays are generally ultra competitive, I think we’ve a good chance with these to close out the month…
May Hay was a winner upon her hurdling debut seven weeks ago and has kept fit with a spin on the A/W at Southwell winning by 4 lengths in 2m handicap. This is a tougher contest than her debut effort, but she won by 12L that day and seemed to have plenty in hand. She has a win and three places from four runs on soft (or worse) ground and gets the trip readily enough. She’s a little skinny at 5/4 BOG, but likely to win…
…provided she can overcome Kashstaree, who also won on her hurdling debut, when she finished strongly to win by 5L a fortnight ago at Musselburgh. She’s by Sakhee, the sire of many a short distance hurdle winner and if she runs like she did first time up, she could push May Hay all the way. 9/4 BOG actually looks a decent price in what should essentially be a two-horse race, especially when we can expect some progression.
This looks to be a pretty strong renewal of this race today, despite a lack of runners: just five going to post. And although you could make a case for all of them, I can’t see one of the top two in the morning, not being the winner. In fact, I’m expecting a pair of forecasts today!
Irish Saint wasn’t a bad hurdler by any means (3 wins and 3 places from 9, including 2 Grade 2 wins!), but seems to have taken to the fences really well, finishing 131 in 3 attempts. The only defeat was by two lengths at the hands of his very good stablemate Vibrato Valtat in a Grade 1 here 8 weeks ago, so no disgrace there. The ground won’t bother him, he’s 2/3 on good to soft, but has a 1213 record on heavy ground. he runs well in small fields races (116131 in races of 7 or fewer runners) and looks a decent prospect at 9/4 BOG today.
But, he’ll have to beat Champagne West today, who is not only proving to be a decent chaser in his own right (112 so far), but represents the mighty Hobbs/Johnson alliance, about whose prowess much is public knowledge and not a secret! He lost his unbeaten chasing record to the excellent Ptit Zig (now 4/4 over fences) at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but there’s definitely no shame attached to that run.
He made a mistake at the last and was headed, but the margin of defeat (6L) is the nearest anyone has got to the winners over fences so far (wins of 10L, 12L & (l previously) and but for that error would have been closer still. A repeat of that effort gives him a great chance at 5/2 BOG here today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
May Hay / Irish Saint @ 6.31/1 (5/4 & 9/4 : generally)
May Hay / Champagne West @ 6.88/1 (5/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Kashstaree / Irish Saint @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4 : generally)
Kashstaree / Champagne West @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : generally)