Stat of the Day, 31st January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 31st January 2015

I knew that backing Lucy Parsons was a bit of a punt on Friday and it’s now safe to say she looked inexperienced (fluffed the start) and also in need of some racing action after an 18 months absence.

After leaving the stalls somewhat awkwardly, she quickly composed herself and was in the thick of things approaching the furlong pole, but as the tempo increased, she began to flounder and work her way back through the pack from third to eighth (aka last!). It was always a selection that was going to go one of two ways and the only real surprise was that the widely-tipped winner was returned as long as 7/2.

Last chance for the week and the month now and I really could do with end with a bang after a week of whimpers. The race I’ve selected for Saturday is the…

2.10 Wetherby:

Where I’m looking for lightning to strike twice! I’ve always had cycles of form whilst compiling SotD and as sure as we’re in the middle of a bad run at present, this run was preceded by a run of 6 straight wins, which started three weeks ago with a 6/1 BOG bet on Firth of The Clyde. Well, the wheel has come full circle and I’m placing that same bet again today!

That doesn’t mean, however, that I haven’t been back and researched the selection properly!

He’s still trained by Malcolm Jefferson, of course…

and if you’d backed every single Jefferson runner in the past 49 months ie since 1st January 2011, you ‘d have had 110 winning bets from 772 attempts. This gives a decent 14.3% strike rate off a big sample size and a £10 level stakes bet at Betfair SP would have generated almost £1700 profit at an ROI of 22%, which I think is excellent.

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I will, however, break those 772 runners down into more manageable chunks!

As follows…

In handicaps : 68/446 (15.3% SR) for 218pts (+48.9% ROI) profit
Over fences : 50/286 (17.5% SR) for 222.2pts (+77.7% ROI) profit
Hcp Chasers : 43/239 (18% SR) for 170.8pts (+71.5% ROI) profit
Chases over 2m4f/2m4.5f : 16/74 (21.6% SR) for 109.3pts (+147.7% ROI) profit
(11/55 (20% SR) for 58.3pts (+106% ROI) profit in handicaps)
Chases in Yorkshire : 12/65 (18.5% SR) for 79.8pts (+122.7% ROI) profit
(10/51 (19.6% SR) for 61.3pts (+120.1% ROI) profit in handicaps)
Chases at Wetherby : 7/36 (19.4% SR) for 63.1pts (+175.1% ROI) profit
(6/28 (21.4% SR) for 57.2pts (+204.4% ROI) profit in handicaps)

I could probably go on (and on and on and on…), but I won’t. Suffice to say you can mix and match the above stats and make profitable microsystems, just beware of diluting your sample sizes too much. But I should add that if you just want to back the chasers at realistic odds, you could do worse than impose a simple odds filter to your bets.

Chasers sent off in the 7/2 to 9/1 range won 25 of 125 in the last four years, anice 20% strike rate yielding 62.9pts profit at an ROI of 50.3%. The handicappers produced similar percentages with 22 winners from 108 (20.4% SR) for 51.7pts (+47.9% ROI)

No surprise to see Brian Hughes in the saddle again…

…just as he was three weeks ago when steering Firth of the Clyde to victory here. Since the start of 2011, Brian has ridden a nice round 50 winners for Malcolm Jefferson at a strike rate of 17.1% from his 292 rides. Backing all of them would have made you a modest, but welcome 33.2pts at an ROI of 11.4%, but the figures do look better when applied to today’s conditions.

The Hughes/Jefferson combo is 24/146 (16.4% SR) for 10.1pts (+6.9% ROI) in handicaps and 21/111 (18.9% SR) for 65.6pts (+59.1% ROI) over fences, leading to a 18/98 (18.4% SR) record in handicap chases producing level stakes profits of 26.1pts at an ROI of 26.6%.

In Yorkshire, those handicap chasers are 5/23 (21.7% SR) for 13.8pts (+60.2% ROI) with three winners coming here at Wetherby.

And the horse?

Firth of the Clyde has a record reading 2511 here at Wetherby, but he’s 2/2 over fences here. He acts on testing ground and although on friday evening the going was said to be soft, I wouldn’t be surprised if the overnight and morning sleet showers don’t affect the going. This won’t be an issue, as FOTC is 221 on heavy ground.

He’s used to Brian Hughes sitting on him, as they have been paired together in each of his 8 efforts over fences, winning three  times with four further top 3 finishes. In fact, the only time he has failed to make the first three home was in a Grade 3 contest at Cheltenham, where he was beaten but not disgraced amongst decent company.

His record in fields of 8 runners or less reads 2113231 and he’s 2/2 in January and 1/1 at today’s Class 2 level.

Some might argue that he was a fortunate winner last time out, but I’m not convinced he’d have been beaten to be honest. Yes, he was 3rd approaching the last when the leading pair brought each other down, but he was staying on well, making ground with every stride.

He was finishing so strongly that he was able to open up an 8 lengths lead on the run in and the way he came home suggested that he had plenty in the tank and that a step up in trip was on the cards. He gets that step up today and I’m taking advantage of what looks a generous price offered by Coral for my 1pt win bet at 6/1 BOG on Firth of the Clyde.

At that price, you might want to go E/W, but that’s not for me and if you don’t want to use Coral (who will give you a free bet if he falls, providing your bet is placed after 9.00am)…

…click here for the latest betting on the 2.10 Wetherby

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Here is today’s racecard.

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