Stat of the Day, 2nd February 2015
Firth of The Clyde was unable to record back to back course and distance wins for us and his fairly comprehensive defeat meant a poor run of form to close out the month (see here for a fuller breakdown).
He plugged on dourly, if truth be told, but never really looked like winning and eventually came home in 5th place at 5/1, a point shorter than we’d advised and around 22 lengths off the winner, who was a source of personal pain for me!
The race was won by Midnight Belle, a chaser sired by Midnight Legend and regular readers of my ramblings will understand why I’m hurting today!
Anyway, February is a new month and we start with a positive attitude and a clean slate looking for winner no.1 of the month in the…
A 10 furlong, Class 5 A/W handicap where Ashley Morgan claims 3lbs on the back of Chris Wall’s 11/2 BOG priced Ze King.
The trainer, Chris Wall…
…has been profitable to back blindly since the start of 2008 with his 210 winners from 1501 runners giving a healthy 14% strike rate yielding 232.1pts at an ROI of 15.5%.
His record broken down looks something like this…
On the A/W : 68/419 (16.2% SR) for 174.3pts (+41.6% ROI)
At Lingfield : 19/135 (14.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+9.8% ROI)
In handicaps : 157/944 (16.6% SR) for 186.4pts (+19.8% ROI)
Lingfield handicaps : 15/95 (15.8% SR) for 35.2pts (+37.1% ROI)
A/W handicaps : 54/394 (18.4% SR) for 123.9pts (+42.1% ROI)
From those 54/394 figured in A/W handicaps…
Classes 4 to 6 : 50/264 (18.9% SR) for 135.4pts (+51.3% ROI)
Class 5 at Lingfield : 6/30 (20% SR) for 41.8pts (+139.3% ROI)
Last 2yrs at C5 here at Lingfield : 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 42.1pts (+300.7% ROI)
Ashley Morgan is in the saddle…
…and it’s his only ride of the day, so he’s just one shot at a win bonus! 2014 was very easily Ashley’s best year to date, riding 16 winners from 93 (17.2% SR) for 174.9pts (+188.1% ROI) profit with a Lingfield record reading 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 44.8pts at an ROI of 320.2%.
Ashley’s record for Chris Wall is 17/82 (20.7% SR) for 176.7pts (+215.5% ROI), but in 2014 alone it was 14/60 (23.3% SR) for 171.3pts (+285.6% ROI).
He is 5/8 (62.5% SR) for Chris Wall here at Lingfield for 51.8pts profit (+647.9% ROI) of which he was 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 43.8pts (+730.2% ROI) last year with a 3/4 (75% SR after finishes of 8111) record for 14.9pts (+372.8% ROI) on horses priced at 8/1 or shorter.
Ashley claims a useful 3lbs here...
…and whe using that claim, he has won 25 of 184 races for a strike rate of 13.6% and level stakes profits of 118.2pts (+64.6% ROI). With that claim, he is 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 54.9pts (392.1% ROI) and 5/7 for Chris Wall.
Ze King might well still be a maiden,but has finished as runner-up in each of his last two efforts over course and distance, the most recent of which (4 starts ago) was a 1 length defeat off a mark of 65 and although he runs off 67 today, Ashley’s claim effectively drops him below that mark here.
He’s not ideally drawn in 9 of 12, but in that previous runner-up finish over course and distance, he was held up for a run anyway and if those tactics are used here again, then the draw isn’t quite as important as it might look initially.
He might not be an immediately obvious choice, but with a couple of pacemakers in the race, it could be set up for him to swoop late on at a decent price, which of me is a 1pt win bet on Ze King at 11/2 BOG. I’ve used the Betfair Sportsbook for this one, but SkyBet are also offering 11/2 BOG whilst Ladbrokes (non-BOG until 9.00am) are as large as 6/1.
But you’ll see all the prices for yourself, if you just…
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