Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2015
Neither I, jockey Ashley Morgan nor horse Ze King exactly covered ourselves in glory on Monday, as jockey/horse became the latest in a very long string of horses to fail to win at Lingfield from too far off the pace after the final bend and they were the first of several on the day to fail to get home up the inside!
Chris Wall’s other runner (which I also fancied and backed!), Semaral, suffered the exact same fate. Ze King was outpaced in the dash for the line and eventually finished 5th of 11, beaten by almost 4 lengths at 9/2, a point shorter than advised.
No jumps action again on Tuesday, so more A/W stuff to consider and one of interest for some obvious (and some not so obvious!) reasons in the…
A 12 furlong, Class 5 A/W handicap where the in-form Graham Lee will ride James Given’s 5yr old, USA-bred gelding, Bushel, as they aim for a second course win inside five days at a generous looking 6/1 BOG.
James likes to turn them back out quickly…
…since the start of 2009, James has sent 119 handicappers out within 7 days of their last outing. 27 (22.7% SR) of them have gone on to win, recording level stakes profits of 109.1pts at an ROI of 91.7% ROI.
Over the last five years, such horses running on the A/W are 16/58 (27.6% SR) for 80.2pts (+138.3% ROI), with those who won last time out going on to win again on five of twelve (41.7% SR) attempts for profits of 26.2pts (+218.4% ROI)
Bushel is up 6lbs for that win 5 days ago…
…and he also steps up a furlong whilst running at the same Class 5 level as last time out. And since 2011, horses running on the A/W with an OR 0 to 7lbs higher than a last time out win within 5 days are 54/159 (34% SR) for 39.3pts (+24.7% ROI) profits when running at the same class or up one grade and at the same trip or up 1 furlong as last time out.
That 54/159 is excellent as it stands, but it moves to 13/32 (40.6% SR) here at Southwell for profits of 14.2pts (+44.4% ROI) and horses priced at 9/4 to 6/1 are 24/73 (32.9% SR) for 48.4pts (+66.4% ROI).
And those running here at Southwell in that 9/4 to 6/1 price bracket are 7/18 (38.9% ROI) for 14.3pts (+79.5% ROI) to date.
Back USA-bred males at Southwell...
…is the old saying, but because it’s old doesn’t mean it’s wrong, as since the start of 2008, USA -bred male runners on the A/W here at Southwell have won 339 races from 1760 attempts; a 19.3% strike rate producing 346.2pts profit at an ROI of 19.7%. Most of you are probably already aware of this system at Southwell, but for those of you not wanting a system that has over 250 bets a year, here are some ways of pruning the number of selections down.
So, from our initial 1760 runners, we have five subsections…
1706 ran at Class 3 to 6 level : 329 winners (19.3% SR) produced 358.6pts (21% ROI) profit,
1296 ran at trips of 7 to 14 furlongs : 261 winners (20.1% SR) produced 342pts (26.4% ROI) profit,
1278 ran in handicap contests : 221 winners (17.3% SR) produced 298.4pts (23.4% ROI) profit,
1017 had three or fewer previous runs here : 210 winners (20.7% SR) produced 358.2pts (35.2% ROI) profit and
725 were aged 4 or 5 years old : 148 winners (20.4% SR) produced 303.4pts (41.9% ROI) profit.
The above can all be mixed and matched to your heart’s content, but for those of you wanting a nice little micro-system for use here at Southwell, here goes!
Since 2008, USA-bred males, aged 4 to 5 running in A/W handicaps over 7 to 14 furlongs here at Southwell with less than four previous runs at this track are 65/282 (23.1% SR) for profits of 226.2pts at an ROI of 80.2%!
Following this gives an average of 40 bets per year and 30 to 35pts profit and has made money in each of the last 7 years with 2011 being the worst year when it “only” made 30.7% ROI!
Bushel, of course, fits the above spec perfectly and he comes here after winning here over 1m3f last Thursday when partnered by today’s jockey Graham Lee. I intimated at the top of the piece that graham was in good touch and his record so far this year backs that up, with his 8/29 record since the turn of the year. He has a 17.5% strike rate here at this track and is already 4/9 here this year.
Bushel is up 6lbs and will need to show a bit more than his last run, but he seems to be improving each time he comes here as a Southwell form line of 321 will show. He fluffed the start last time out and was slow away losing a chunk of ground, before battling back to stay on and take the lead inside the final furlong. With a better start this time and a similar display of late power should ensure another good run up in trip,
He actually stays further than this, but has won over today’s 1m4f distance and Bushel looks good value at his current odds of 6/1 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook. Other firms have him at 4/1 to 11/2, which might indicate a shorter price later giving us some added value to the selection.
If you want to see what the other bookies are offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS