Double Dutch, 3rd February 2015
As expected, we had the one-two in the selected handicap at Lingfield with Coup de Grace leading Gimme Five home by three parts of a length to set us on our way towards that elusive 100pts barrier, with the added bonus of a small forecast in the bag too!
But that, I’m afraid, was as good as it got. Sellers are invariably full of unreliable horses, and the two I went with, fit that bill perfectly! Yair Hill was handily placed with a couple of furlongs to run, but pretty soon ran out of steam, whilst the Doppler Effect created very little effect at all. Very slow away, raced in rear and only made a short unsustained effort to get on terms.
Our pair came home 4th and 5th of just 6 runners, beaten by 3.5 lengths and 8 lengths respectively.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Coup de Grace : WON at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Gimme Five : 2nd at 7/2(adv 11/4)
The exacta paid 7.90/1 (forecast was 6.72/1)
Yair Hill : 4th at 10/3 (adv 10/3)
Doppler Effect : 5th at 7/1 (adv 8/1)
Results to date:
477 winning selections from 1671 = 28.55%
148 winning bets in 433 days = 34.18%
P/L : +92.88pts (+10.73% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Still no jumps racing on offer, so we’re back to the “beaches” on Tuesday…
Dean Ivory runs three here and Zaeem looks the best of the trio, despite conceding weight all round and I’m not convinced he can afford to do so, so that’s three off my list of possibles. Second in the weights is the frustrating City of Angkor Watt, who is very consistent, but generally finds one or two just too good and he’s still rising in weight and is also overlooked.
So, rather than just pick two horses, I’ve narrowed it down to Habeshia and Childesplay. Habeshia carries bottom weight here and is just 2lbs higher than winning over course and distance here in November. He overcame a poor start last time out (also over C&D) to finish strongly to get within a head of the eventual winner and provided he gets out of the stalls a bit better this time, is the one to beat at 9/4 BOG.
The 3/1 BOG Childesplay looks next best, despite being a maiden after 7 races. She’s 0/6 over 7 furlongs, but hasn’t failed to make the frist three home in any of those races and has always looked like she needs further. She gets an extra furlong here today and that should suit her better, as she tends to do her best work towards the end of a race, but hasn’t quite got that turn of foot needed to win at shorter trips.
I like the look of Barbs Princess here today. She’s currently priced at 5/2 BOG in her bid to land a hat-trick of wins over 6f inside three weeks. Her record at this trip is 4/10 and she won at her first crack at this course and distance last time out. Both her trainer and jockey have decent enough records here at this venue and I fancy her to land the hat-trick at 5/2 BOG.
The main obstacle is likely to be Viva Verglas, It’s fairly widely well known that David Barron excels with his 6f sprinters and there’s also evidence to show that Graham Gibbons rides the Barron horses to good effect and they look a dangerous partnership aboard this 100/30 BOG runner today. This horse tends to run in better company than this and although he was back in 6th place at Chelmsford last time out, he was beaten by less than three lengths. Prior to that run, he was only beaten by a short head here over course and distance at Class 3 level, with the winner Guishan winning again since.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Habeshia / Barbs Princess @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Habeshia / Viva Verglas @ 14.17/1 (5/2 & 10/3 : Hills)
Childesplay / Barbs Princess @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Bet365 & Coral)
Childesplay / Viva Verglas @ 32.75/1 (3/1 & 10/3 : Boylesports)