Double Dutch, 5th February 2015
Two placers, but no winners from my four selections on Wednesday, I’m afraid.
At Kempton, Studfarmer went really well from that wide draw and stayed on strongly, but just had too much to do tacking over from stall 10 over 5f. Quantum Dot got out and away better than expected to hold on for the win with Studfarmer back in third, a length and a quarter back.
Then, later at Chelmsford, the well-fancied (6/4 from 9/4) Oratorio’s Joy was our best placed runner, having only been headed with less than a half of the 13.5 furlongs left to run. Unfortunately for us, Precision Five had a stronger finish and for the second time on the day, we were beaten by 1.25 lengths.
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Studfarmer : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 5/1)
Two Turtle Doves : 8th at 12/1 (adv 6/1)
Oratorio’s Joy : 2nd at 6/4 (adv 9/4)
Asia Minor : 4th at 5/2 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
477 winning selections from 1679 = 28.41%
148 winning bets in 435 days = 34.02%
P/L : +88.88pts (+10.22% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
It has been a bit of a struggle this week, so I’m looking to these on Thursday to get back to winning ways…
Apart from Call of Duty returning from a 117-day break all the runners here have raced in the last three weeks and two of them were winners here at Wolverhampton last time and so I’m going with Cabal and Gabriel The Thug to get one of them to double up.
Cabal has finished 3rd and 1st in her two runs since switching to Geoffrey Harker and there’s a possibility that even after 19 starts on the A/W, there might be a bit more to come. She’s a 3-time winner here at Wolverhmapton, including one win at today’s 8.5f trip and drops down a furlong from her win here 6 days ago. She was hanging on a little at the finish, so might well prefer this distance.
Cabal is up 4lbs for that win, but Jacob Butterfield claims 3lbs, making this bottom weight runner a competitive option at 11/4 BOG in a race where her main rival Gabrial The Thug will aim to defy a 3lb penalty for a course and distance win 17 days ago. Richard Fahey’s runners are going well at the moment and jockey Tony Hamilton has 5 winners from 17 rides in the last fortnight and also has a 4/12 record here at Wolverhampton this year. If you fancy Gabrial The Thug to score again, you can have 3/1 BOG from Bet365.
This looks to be a three horse race between the market leaders and my preference would be for the 5/2 BOG Milly’s Secret for the in-form David O’Meara, despite her coming off a long losing run. She has done most of her work at 6 and 7 furlongs, but has shown improvement of late for being stepped up in trip. She’s up a further half furlong today and will seek to take advantage of a handicap mark that has tumbled by 21lbs in less than 6 months. That in itself, sums up how poor this race looks.
The main threat will probably come from the veteran of the race, Master of Song, currently also a 5/2 BOG chance. Both his trainer (Roy Bowring) and his jockey (Ali Rawlinson) have good records in A/W handicaps and this horse has won two of his last four races, one at 1m and one at 1m4f, so trip shouldn’t be the issue here today. The nagging doubt is that all four of his A/W wins have come at Southwell, so it might be case of seeing how he takes to this track
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Cabal / Milly’s Secret @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Betfred, Betfair SB & Totesport)
Cabal / Master of Song @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Betfred, Stan James & Totesport)
Gabrial The Thug / Milly’s Secret @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Coral)
Gabrial The Thug / Master of Song @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : Bet365)