Stat of the Day, 5th February 2015
My cold run continued on Wednesday as the 11/4 advised Squats drifted out to 7/2 before being beaten by 2.5 lengths to finish 6th of the 8 runners, but he deserved better.
As he began to make his challenge a furlong out, he was badly hampered and them sandwiched before running on again to try to close down the leaders and had he not encountered problems, it could have been a different story.
But the search now goes on to break this run and my quest now takes me to the…
Where Venetia Williams’ Abundantly is best priced at 9/2 BOG with Coral for this Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m 1f on soft ground.
Venetia’s record here at Taunton is good at 28/128 (21.9% SR) for 37.5pts (+29.3% ROI) profit, from which we see that she is 17/72 (23.6% SR) in handicaps here for 28.4pts (+39.4% ROI) and she’s 20/85 (23.5% SR) for 51.4pts (+60.4% ROI) with her Taunton hurdlers.
Venetia is 11/41 (26.8% SR) with handicap hurdlers here at Taunton for 35.1pts (+85.6% ROI) profit.
It’s widely known that the Williams yard has a good record on soft ground, so I won’t bore you with the details, aside from telling you that of the 11.41 record, the figures on soft ground are 5/10 for 28pts profit.
Abundantly comes here off the back of a comfortable win over course and distance 19 days ago and Venetia’s handicap hurdlers who won last time out have gone on to win again on 21 of 48 (43.75% SR) for 11.8pts (+24.6% ROI) when priced at 5/1 or shorter in the past six years.
Meanwhile, runners in Taunton handicaps over the last three years who have CD next to to their name and who won lat time out are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 14.3pts (+51.2% ROI) profit.
Abundantly ran and won over today’s course and distance almost three weeks ago and although this race is tougher, the following should be noted…
…she won by 13 lengths last time out
…it was her first run for a year and only her second for the yard
…it was her first run here at Taunton
…it was on heavy ground
She’s sure to come on for having had the run and with conditions looking better today, she looks dangerous down near the foot of the weights off a fairly lenient-looking opening mark of 110.
So, the call for Thursday is a 1pt win bet on Abundantly at 9/2 BOG with Coral. Alternatively, you can always…
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