Double Dutch, 6th February 2015
Thursday was a frustrating day in the end, despite Gabrial The Thug winning our first race, having led from 2f out. He’d been well backed (13/8 from 3/1) and justified the support.
This gave us a 4 hour wait for the last race on the Chelmsford card, a race I’d narrowed down to three contenders and I ultimately got my pants pulled down as the discard went on to win at 7/2, with our runners beaten by 6.5L and 11.5L for another blank day!
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Gabriel The Thug : WON at 13/8 (adv 3/1)
Cabal : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Milly’s Secret : 3rd at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Master of Song : 5th at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
478 winning selections from 1683 = 28.40%
148 winning bets in 436 days = 33.94%
P/L : +86.88pts (+9.97% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Here are Friday’s selected races…
The defection of Twentytwos Taken seems to have simplified the issue here, especially as I feel this trip is too sharp for L’aigle Royal, despite the horse’s obvious pedigree/ability.
This then leaves me with two, the first of which is Great Try, making just his third start over hurdles. He was beaten by less than 3 lengths on debut at Aintree in a Class 3 race with the two horses immediately behind him winning next time out. He then dropped to today’s C4 level and was only beaten by a couple of lengths at Newbury and only really losing the race late on as he tired.
He had by then raced three times in 9 weeks after a 251 day break since his debut, so perhaps the mere fact he has rested for almost six weeks will be enough to get Great Try off the mark at 7/4 BOG.
Bringithomeminty is the backup plan, even if it’s only because I don’t like anything else! He won a bumper at Kempton this time last year and really looked a promising type. He fell quite early into his hurdling debut last time out, so we’re not sure what he will be.
We do know however that his trainer Nicky Henderson has a good record here at Bangor and has also won this race twice in the past. We also know that Nico de Boinville is an excellent jockey who has a great record on the Henderson horses. The yard is 17/50 for 8.21pts in the last five weeks and they’ll be hopeful of adding a 9/4 BOG winner via Bringithomeminty to the tally.
Deny has admittedly never run on heavy ground before, so we have to take his handling of the surface on trust, but he has performed well in his last two starts, both on soft ground. He was third of nine at Sedgefield on Boxing Day (2m1f, soft) with the winner, runner-up and fifth placed horse all going on to win since. For his part, Deny then reappeared at Catterick three weeks later (and 16 days ago) and ran out as a winner over today’s 2m trip on soft ground.
He’s a consistent performer, whose recent record of 133P31 brings the best form to the table and provided it’s not too sticky for him, I expect Deny to be in the mix at 4/1 BOG today.
The main danger is likely to come from Sam Lord who has, unfortunately for us, already attracted a fair deal of support. I backed him early this morning at 10/1 E/W with Boylesports, but he’s now best priced at 5/1 BOG. Conditions are ideal for him here today and he’s the most proven of the runners on heavy ground. he’s 7/48 at Class 4 level and it’s interesting to see this former course and distance winner coming down a grade for the first time in 14 races.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Great Try / Deny @ 12.13/1 (13/8 & 4/1 : Stan James)
Great Try / Sam Lord @ 14.75/1 (13/8 & 5/1 : Betway, Paddy Power & Stan James)
Bringithomeminty / Deny @ 15.25/1 (9/4 & 4/1 : Stan James)
Bringithomeminty / Sam Lord @ 18.50/1 (9/4 & 5/1 : generally)