Sat TV Trends: 7th Feb 2015

The C4 cameras head to Newbury with the Betfair Hurdle, Denman Chase and Game Spirit Chase the features there, while there are also two LIVE races at Warwick. We’ve got all the big race trends, and trainer stats for each race for you.

NEWBURY (C4/RUK)

1.50 – Betfair Home of The Price Rush Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m110y CH4

10/10 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
8/10 – Aged 7 or younger
8/10 – Carried 10-13 or more
8/10 – Had run within the last 9 weeks
7/10 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
7/10 – Carried 11-1 or more
7/10 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
6/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/10 – Unplaced last time out
5/10 – Aged 7 years-old
4/10 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
4/10 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
3/10 – French bred
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/10 – Raced at Haydock last time out
2/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8.5/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Paul Nicholls has a 22% record with his hurdlers here
Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his hurdlers here
Barry Geraghty has a 22% record riding over hurdles here

2.25 – Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m CH4

10/11 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
9/11 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
9/11 – Rated 150+
9/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Placed favourites
8/11 – Aged 8 or younger
8/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/11 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (2 winners)
7/11 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (3) last time out
6/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/11 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
5/11 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
4/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – French bred
3/11 – Returned a double-figure price
3/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/11 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/11 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Denman & Kauto Star)
2/11 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
Note: 2009 running was staged at Kempton

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Paul Nicholls has a 22% record with his chasers here
Kim Bailey has a 32% record with his chasers here

3.00 – Betfair Price Rush Chase (Registered As The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f CH4

10/10 – Placed favourites
10/10 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Aged 8 or younger
9/10 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (2 winners)
7/10 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
7/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/10 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
6/10 – French bred
5/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (3 winners)
5/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/10 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/10 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/10 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
1/10 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Harry Fry has a 33% record with his chasers here
Paul Nicholls has a 22% record with his chasers here
Gary Moore is just 1 from 26 with his chasers here

3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y CH4

12/12 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
11/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
10/12 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
10/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/12 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
10/12 – Rated 130 or higher
10/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
10/12 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
9/12 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
8/12 – Placed favourites
8/12 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
7/12 – Irish bred
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
6/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/12 – Aged 5 years-old (including 4 of last 7)
4/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
2/12  – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/12 – Trained by Gary Moore
1/12 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
17 of the last 18 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15.6/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Harry Fy has a 43% record with his hurdlers here
Evan Williams has a 33% record with his hurdlers here
Dan Skelton is 2 from 9 with his hurdlers here
Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his hurdlers here
Paul Nicholls has a 22% record with his hurdlers here

WARWICK (C4/RUK)

2.05 – titanbet.co.uk Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m CH4

5 previous runnings
4/5 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
4/5 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
2/5 – Winning favourites
Trainer Alan King has a 29% strike-rate with his chasers at the track

2.40 – olbg.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f CH4

One previous running
Glens Melody took the race 12 months ago
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 31% record with his hurdlers at the track
Willie Mullins has a 67% record with his hurdlers at the course (2 from 3)
Alan King has a 24% record with his runners at the course

LEOPARDSTOWN (ATR) – Sunday 8th Feb 2015

3.50 – Hennessy Gold Cup (Grade 1) (5yo+)

12/112– Had run at Leopardsown over fences before
12/12 – Last ran was 6 weeks or less
12/12 – Placed favourites
12/12 – Had won over at least 3m before in their career (any code)
10/12 – Had won a Grade 1 Chase before
9/12 – Ran in the Lexus Chase (Leopardstown) last time out
9/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12– Aged 9 or younger
9/12 – Irish-bred
9/12 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/12 – Had won between 3-5 times over fences (rules) before
8/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/12 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
8/12 – Had won over fences at Leopardstown before
7/12 – Rated 160 or higher
7/12 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners)
6/12 – Winning favourites
5/12 – Trained by Willie Mullins
4/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Won by a UK-based trainer

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Ted Walsh has a 33% record with his chasers here
Willie Mullins has a 23% record with his chasers here
Mouse Morris is 0 from 25 with his chasers here

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